Recurring series
MUFGAsia FX Talk
Finvaulta tracks 45 editions of Asia FX Talk from MUFG, published between May 11, 2026 and September 2, 2026. Each edition is summarized on its own page.
Latest edition · September 2, 2026
Asia FX Talk Regional FX faces dual headwinds from rising US yields and oil prices
Asian currencies are under pressure from surging US Treasury yields following a hawkish repricing of the Fed outlook and rising crude oil prices approaching $95/bbl. The dual shock worsens terms of trade for regional energy importers and heightens macro risks for currencies like the Indonesian rupiah.
Following Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, markets have repriced US interest rate expectations higher, assigning a 66% probability to a September hike and lifting the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.80%. Concurrently, renewed US-Iran tensions drove Brent crude up 4.6% overnight to almost $95/bbl, accompanied by rising agricultural prices. This combination of higher core global yields and commodity-driven inflation worsens terms of trade for Asian energy importers such as Thailand, the Philippines, India, and South Korea, while threatening external and fiscal balances in Indonesia.
Read the latest edition in fullKey takeaways from the latest edition
- 1.US rate expectations have shifted back to 'high-for-longer' following Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole address, with markets pricing a 66% probability of a September rate hike and pushing US Treasury yields sharply higher.
- 2.Surging oil prices (Brent reaching nearly $95/bbl on US-Iran strikes) worsen the terms of trade and boost inflation risks for net energy importers across Asia, including Thailand, the Philippines, India, and South Korea.
- 3.MUFG remains cautious on the Indonesian rupiah due to accelerating domestic inflation (3.19% yoy in August) and risks to fiscal and external balances if Brent crude remains sustained above $90/bbl.
What this series covers
- Market Highlights
- Ahead Today
- INDICATIVE RATES 1-Sep-2026
- Disclaimer
Edition archive
Asia FX Talk Regional FX faces dual headwinds from rising US yields and oil prices
September 2, 2026
Asia FX Talk INR rates likely to rise with strong GDP
September 1, 2026
Asia FX Talk Bank of Korea and BSP hiked rates a Homi for your thoughts
August 28, 2026
Asia FX Talk Bank of Thailand on hold for some time
August 27, 2026
Asia FX Talk US data softens, focus shifts to China
August 17, 2026
Asia FX Talk - There she goes... there she goes again
August 5, 2026
Asia FX Talk - FOMC - Talk is cheap, sharp sell-off in long-end US yields
July 30, 2026
Asia FX Talk - FOMC in focus
July 29, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Energy supply risks back in focus as US-Iran tensions intensify
July 23, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Indonesia - There is no free lunch
July 22, 2026
Asia FX Talk - US inflation decline softens Fed rate hike expectations
July 15, 2026
MUFG -Asia FX Talk - When you say nothing at all
July 14, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Kevin Warsh's Taskforces Assemble - 13 July 2026
July 13, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Rupiah weakness could persist
July 10, 2026
Asia FX Talk - US yields and oil rebound keep pressure on regional FX
July 9, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Can future cashflows justify AI buildout
July 7, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Watching out for next Dollar catalyst and local Asia factors
July 6, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Softer non-farm payrolls and suspected intervention supported JPY
July 3, 2026
Asia FX Talk - JPY intervention risks ahead - 2 July 2026
July 2, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Risk sentiment improves
July 1, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Fed independence maintained for now
June 30, 2026
Asia FX Talk - USD stays firm amid higher inflation
June 26, 2026
Asia FX Talk - USDJPY tests 2024 highs amid dollar strength
June 25, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Risk-off with semiconductor stocks lower
June 24, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Asian currencies modestly weaker
June 23, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Asian central banks tighten policy amidst hawkish Fed and stronger USD
June 19, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Hawkish repricing of US rates
June 18, 2026
Asia FX Talk - FOMC in focus
June 17, 2026
Asia FX Talk - BOJ and RBA kick off central bank week
June 16, 2026
Asia FX Talk - It is finished US and Iran reach deal
June 15, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Hope deferred makes the heart sick
June 12, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Escalating Middle East risks weigh on regional FX
June 11, 2026
Asia FX Talk - USD stays firm, BI tightens to support rupiah
June 10, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Asian central banks are pushing back
June 9, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Upside NFP surprise jolts regional FX
June 8, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Risks appear balanced in NFP print
June 5, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Regional FX remains defensive
June 4, 2026
Asia FX Talk - At a crossroad
June 3, 2026
Asia FX Talk - First come first serve
May 26, 2026
Asia FX Talk - USD holds firm, but a US-Iran deal risks a reversal
May 25, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Jumbo rate hike by Bank Indonesia to defend Rupiah
May 21, 2026
Asia FX Talk - EM Asia currencies remain under pressure
May 19, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Sharp rise in global bond yields weigh on EM Asia currencies
May 18, 2026
Asia FX Talk - Trump-Xi Summit key
May 14, 2026
Asia FX Talk - USD capped despite stronger-than-consensus NFP
May 11, 2026
Series at a glance
- Editions tracked
- 45
- First edition
- May 11, 2026
- Latest edition
- September 2, 2026