Report published September 29, 2026
Middle East Daily: Geopolitical Tensions Lift Oil Past $107/b as Regional Supply Tightens
MUFG · September 29, 2026
Crude oil rose with Brent surpassing USD 107/b due to tight prompt physical supply and stalled US-Iran negotiations, despite partial restoration of Saudi pipeline capacity. Regional sovereign credit endured another weak session, while Qatar LNG export disruptions remain extended into late 2026.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.Brent crude climbed above USD 107/b and WTI hovered near USD 94/b as stalled US-Iran negotiations and Strait of Hormuz closure concerns offset partial recovery in Saudi pipeline flows.
- 2.Saudi Arabia restored around 3.5mb/d of capacity on its East-West pipeline, while QatarEnergy extended force majeure on LNG shipments through November or early December.
- 3.Middle East credit markets faced another weak session characterized by wider spreads and higher yields, though afternoon sessions saw dip buying and short covering.
Table of Contents
- COMMODITIES / ENERGY
- MIDDLE EAST – CREDIT TRADING
- MIDDLE EAST – MACRO / MARKETS
- CALENDAR – DATA / EVENTS / MEETINGS
- MARKET INDICATORS
Report data
BACKWARDATION IN OIL MARKETS WIDENS
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude Price | 107.30 USD/b | Brent crude price advanced above USD 107/b amid geopolitical tension. |
| Brent Prompt Spread | 7.00 USD/b | Brent prompt spread widened from less than USD 1/b at end-August to more than USD 7/b. |
| Saudi East-West Pipeline Restored Flow | 3.5 mb/d | Flows reached at least 3.5mb/d out of 7mb/d total capacity after drone attacks. |
| Bahrain Headline CPI | 3.0 % y/y | Bahrain's headline inflation remained unchanged at 3.0% y/y in August. |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 5.23% | 10-year Treasury yield held around 5.23% after reaching a 19-year peak. |
Reports in this series
Middle East Daily is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 29, 2026.
Part of the Middle East Daily series — view all 65 editions
Looking for the latest edition? Middle East (Oct 9, 2026)
- Sep 23Middle East
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