Report published September 1, 2026
MUFG Foreign Exchange Outlook: September 2026 Global FX and Central Bank Analysis
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- MUFG
- Report date
- September 1, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 28, 2026
Authors / editors: Derek Halpenny, Lee Hardman, Lin Li, PhD, Khang Sek Lee, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan, Soojin Kim, George Goncalves
Finvaulta summarizes MUFG's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
MUFG's September 2026 Foreign Exchange Outlook analyzes G10 and EM currency trajectories ahead of a rare month where every G10 central bank meets. While elevated energy prices and hawkish rhetoric from Fed Chair Warsh support near-term dollar yields, MUFG projects medium-term USD depreciation as global yield differentials normalize.
Key Takeaways
- 1.All G10 central banks meet in September 2026, with rate hikes priced or anticipated across several economies (Fed ~60%, RBNZ ~100%, ECB ~100%, BoJ ~90%, Norges Bank ~64%, RBA ~50%).
- 2.Natural gas and diesel prices have spiked sharply due to Middle East tensions and Russian refinery disruptions, driving upside risks to inflation across Europe.
- 3.US Treasury bond buyback announcements and rising fiscal concerns triggered USD debasement worries, though Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish speech cushioned near-term dollar declines.
Table of Contents
- KEY EVENTS IN THE MONTH AHEAD
- MAJORS
- EUROPE & S AFRICA
- ASIA
- LATAM
- MENA
- Forecast rates against the US dollar - End-Q3 to End-Q2 2027
- US dollar
- Japanese yen
- Euro
- Pound sterling
- Chinese renminbi
- Australian dollar
- New Zealand dollar
- Canadian dollar
- Norwegian krone
- Swedish krona
- Swiss franc
- Czech koruna
- Hungarian forint
- Polish zloty
- Romanian leu
- Russian rouble
- South African rand
- Turkish lira
- Indian rupee
- Indonesian rupiah
- Malaysian ringgit
- Philippine peso
- Singapore dollar
- South Korean won
- Taiwan dollar
- Thai baht
- Vietnamese dong
- Argentine peso
- Brazilian real
- Chilean peso
- Mexican peso
- Saudi Riyal
- Egyptian Pound
Report data
Forecast rates against the US dollar - End-Q3 to End-Q2 2027 — as of August 28, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| DXY Spot Close | 99.565 index | US dollar index decline in August 2026. |
| European TTF Natural Gas 2-Month Change | 73% | TTF natural gas surge driven by supply constraints around the Strait of Hormuz and depleted European storage. |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield Close | 4.75% | US 10-Year yield close as of August 28, 2026 incorporated into FX forecast assumptions. |
| Japan 10-Year JGB Yield Close | 2.96% | Highest monthly close for 10-year JGB yield since 1997. |
Reports in this series
Foreign Exchange Outlook is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 1, 2026.
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- DXY Spot Close: 99.565 index (2026-08-28) · Source: Bloomberg
- European TTF Natural Gas 2-Month Change: 73 % (Late June to August 2026)
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield Close: 4.75 % (2026-08-28) · Source: Bloomberg
- Japan 10-Year JGB Yield Close: 2.96 % (2026-08-28) · Source: Bloomberg