Report published September 23, 2026
Focus on Bank Indonesia Meeting: MUFG Asia FX Analysis & Regional Currency Outlook
MUFG · September 23, 2026
Risk sentiment was mixed with oil hovering near US$100/bbl amid US-Iran tensions and Saudi pipeline restart reports. Ahead of Bank Indonesia's expected rate pause, MUFG stays cautious on IDR while continuing to favor KRW and TWD backed by strong AI demand.
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Finvaulta summarizes MUFG's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain its policy rate on hold, with market attention focused on FX hedging subsidies and measures to attract foreign capital.
- 2.The analyst remains cautious on the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) due to domestic policy uncertainty and external pressures from elevated US yields and oil prices.
- 3.KRW and TWD remain favored Asian currencies driven by explosive AI infrastructure demand and blowout export growth from Taiwan and South Korea.
Table of Contents
- Focus on Bank Indonesia meeting
- Market Highlights
- INDICATIVE RATES 22-Sep-2026
- FOREIGN EXCHANGE
Report data
CHART 1: IDR HAS BEEN WEIGHED DOWN BY HIGHER US YIELDS AND OIL PRICES AFTER A RECENT PERIOD OF STABILITY — as of September 22, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Taiwan export orders growth | 71% | Absolute blowout export orders data from Taiwan reflecting AI infrastructure demand. |
| South Korea export growth (first 20 days) | 78% | Accelerated from 56% yoy to 78% yoy on AI hardware demand. |
| Crude Oil Price (Brent) | 100.24 USD/bbl | Oil hovered around US$100/bbl mark weighing geopolitical uncertainty against pipeline restarts. |
| US 10-Year Government Bond Yield | 4.973% | US rates remain elevated, weighing on Asian currencies such as IDR. |
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Asia FX Talk is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 23, 2026.
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