Report published September 25, 2026

MUFG FX Strategy: External Pressures Build on Regional FX Amid Rising Yields and Oil Shocks

MUFG · September 25, 2026

Asian currencies face mounting external pressure as climbing US Treasury yields, stronger US dollar momentum, and surging oil prices weigh on regional FX. Underperformance is led by the Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah amid deteriorating terms of trade and policy constraints.

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Finvaulta summarizes MUFG's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Surging US Treasury yields, rising oil prices, and broader US dollar strength continue to exert severe external pressure on Asian currencies.
2.Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and tanker disruption around the Red Sea are amplifying oil supply concerns, compounding inflationary and rates headwinds.
3.Thailand's baht and Indonesia's rupiah are particularly vulnerable, as higher oil costs strain terms of trade and limit the efficacy of domestic policy coordination.

Market Highlights
Ahead Today
INDICATIVE RATES 24-Sep-2026
FOREIGN EXCHANGE

Report data

CHART 1: SIGNS OF DISRUPTION IN THE RED SEA — as of September 24, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
US 10-year Treasury yield change	8.0 bp	Climbed around 8bp in deepening US Treasury selloff
Brent crude daily change	3.4%	Brent rose on geopolitical risk and Red Sea shipping disruption
DXY daily change	0.2%	US dollar extended advance against global and Asian currencies
Bank Indonesia Policy Rate	5.75%	Bank Indonesia kept policy rate on hold at 5.75%
THB change since Jackson Hole	-1.8%	THB performance against USD since Jackson Hole