Report published September 23, 2026
Euro Area PMI Shows Resilient Activity and Broadening Price Pressures – MUFG Research Report
MUFG · September 23, 2026
Euro area composite PMI beat consensus in September, reaching a 41-month high of 53.1 led by gains in manufacturing and services. Rising services output prices support MUFG's baseline view that the ECB will raise its deposit rate from 2.50% to 3.00%, potentially as early as October.
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Finvaulta summarizes MUFG's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Euro area composite PMI climbed to a 41-month high of 53.1 in September, beating expectations and showing broad economic resilience across both manufacturing and services.
- 2.Services output price pressures surged to 56.0, the highest since February 2024, indicating that energy costs are spilling into the broader domestic economy.
- 3.MUFG forecasts the ECB will raise the deposit rate from 2.50% to 3.00%, maintaining a call for an October rate hike, although it remains dependent on energy developments.
Table of Contents
- A story of ongoing resilience
- The case for further ECB tightening has been bolstered
Report data
There are signs that inflationary pressures may be broadening beyond energy effects
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Area Composite PMI | 53.1 index points | Rose to a 41-month high, beating consensus expectations |
| Euro Area Manufacturing New Orders PMI | 52.3 index points | Highest level since March 2022, supported by AI capex and defence spending |
| Euro Area Services Output Price Gauge | 56.0 index points | Highest level since February 2024, indicating broadening price pressures |
| Euro Area GDP Growth Tracking (ex. Ireland) | 0.2% | Tracking growth around 0.2% Q/Q in Q3 |
| Euro Area Annual Average GDP Growth Forecast | 1.0% | MUFG's base case growth forecast for the full year |
Reports in this series
European Macro is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 23, 2026.
Part of the European Macro series — view all 4 editions
Looking for the latest edition? Higher euro area inflation, but it remains an energy story (Sep 30, 2026)
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