Report published September 23, 2026
Decline in Crude Oil Fails to Weaken the US Dollar – MUFG FX Strategy Analysis
MUFG · September 23, 2026
The US dollar continues to strengthen despite a six-day drop in crude oil prices, underpinned by hawkish Fed rhetoric and multi-year highs in US Treasury yields. Meanwhile, EUR/USD faces mounting downside risks driven by technical breakdowns and European political headwinds.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.The US dollar maintains upside momentum despite falling Brent crude prices, buoyed by elevated US Treasury yields and hawkish communications from Federal Reserve officials.
- 2.Downside risks for EUR/USD are intensifying following a technical breakdown below multi-month trendline support, combined with German political fragmentation and French political risks.
- 3.Energy markets have experienced sharp retail inflation in the US, with retail gasoline up 10% and diesel surging 15% in September to an all-time record high dating back to 2005.
Table of Contents
- USD: Optimism builds as crude oil price declines
- EUR: Downside risks building
- KEY RELEASES AND EVENTS
Report data
US RETAIL DIESEL PRICE SURGES TO NEW RECORD HIGH
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US Retail Gasoline Price Month-to-Date Change | 10.0% | Approaching highs set in May 2026. |
| US Retail Diesel Price Month-to-Date Change | 15.0% | Surged above 2022 highs to set a record high since 2005. |
| Brent Crude Oil Intraday Decline | -4.0% | Declined from intraday high following news of US-Iran negotiations. |
| US 2-Year Treasury Yield Intraday High | 4.79% | Highest level reached since July 2024. |
| Democratic Probability of Winning US Senate | 70.0% | Race to the WH polling estimate predicting 52.4 Senate seats for Democrats vs 47.6 for Republicans. |
Reports in this series
FX Daily Snapshot is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 23, 2026.
Part of the FX Daily Snapshot series — view all 77 editions
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- Sep 17FX Daily Snapshot
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