Report published September 25, 2026

Asia FX Weekly: US Payrolls the Next Test as External Pressures Build

MUFG · September 25, 2026

Asia FX is caught between supportive regional electronics export growth and mounting external headwinds from elevated US Treasury yields and Brent crude trading above $100/bbl. The upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report represents the primary catalyst that will determine whether Asia-US yield compression intensifies or eases.

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Key Takeaways

1.Rising US Treasury yields and Brent crude above $100/bbl are compressing Asia-US yield spreads, creating a challenging external backdrop for regional currencies.
2.Upcoming US payrolls data is the central catalyst; resilient jobs data would entrench higher US rates and dollar strength, while softer data offers respite.
3.Robust electronics and semiconductor demand in Korea and Taiwan acts as a buffer against US rate headwinds, whereas oil importers like India and Indonesia face compounding currency pressure.

US payrolls the next test as external pressures build
FX views
USD/CNY: Rebounding back above 6.70 level as Dollar gained strength
USD/KRW: September inflation data next week is important to watch
USD/INR: Higher US yields and oil prices outweigh support from RBI's expanded intervention capacity
USD/VND: Dong remains stable despite the sharp rise in US yields
USD/IDR: External Pressures Build, Keeping Risks Skewed Higher
Week in review
Capital Flows
Government bond yield spreads: Decreased for 2y and 10y
Central bank monitor
The week ahead
WEEKLY CALENDAR
Forecasts
Core indicators
Recent publications

Report data

US YIELD REPRICING HAS OUTPACED ASIA — as of September 25, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
Brent Crude Price	106 USD/bbl	Brent crude climbed amid Middle East tensions and attacks targeting Yanbu export routes.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield	5.19%	US 10Y yield moved to 5.2% as resilient US PMIs reinforced expectations of further Fed tightening.
South Korea First 20-Day Exports YoY	78.3%	Korea first 20-day exports reached a record USD 71.4bn driven by semiconductor shipments.
Net Foreign Institutional Inflow into Asian Equities	1256 USD mn	Inflows were led by Taiwan ($1,705mn) and India ($416mn), while South Korea recorded outflows ($473mn).
Taiwan August Export Orders YoY	71.4%	Orders exceeded $100bn for the first time driven by AI demand.