Report published August 28, 2026
Asia FX Eyes Warsh Signals and PMI Numbers: MUFG Weekly FX Research
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- MUFG
- Report date
- August 28, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 28, 2026
Authors / editors: Lin Li, PhD, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan, Khang Sek Lee
Finvaulta summarizes MUFG's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
MUFG's Asia FX Weekly assesses the impact of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, upcoming US data, and China PMIs on Asian currency markets. Regional performance remains divergent, with tech exporters (KRW, TWD) outperforming while external-deficit and energy-sensitive currencies (PHP, THB, IDR) face ongoing headwinds.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The upcoming Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and US August labor/manufacturing data are key near-term catalysts for US Treasury yields and Asian FX direction.
- 2.KRW and TWD outperformed regional peers due to continued enthusiasm around AI and the semiconductor cycle along with pre-emptive BoK monetary tightening.
- 3.PHP and THB underperformed due to widening trade deficits, external balance pressures, and sensitivity to elevated oil prices.
Table of Contents
- Asia FX eyes Warsh and PMI numbers
- FX views
- USD/CNY: August PMIs to offer an early read on latest economic conditions
- USD/KRW: Pre-emptive 25bps rate hike by the BoK
- USD/INR: External buffers contain the rupee as domestic rates reprice higher
- USD/VND: External inflows cushion the dong, but import and credit growth remain headwinds
- USD/IDR: Temporary rupiah reprieve, but medium-term risks unresolved
- Week in review
- Capital Flows
- China Stock Connect & Bond Connect
- Government bond yield spreads: Mixed for 2y and 10y
- Central bank monitor
- The week ahead
- WEEKLY CALENDAR
- Forecasts
- Core indicators
Report data
FX PERFORMANCE — as of August 28, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of Korea Base Rate | 3.00% | BoK delivered a back-to-back 25bps rate hike to 3.00% to combat persistent inflation and Seoul property price rises. |
| Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Policy Rate | 5.00% | BSP raised its policy rate by 25bp to 5.00%, marking its third consecutive hike. |
| Bank Indonesia 12-month SRBI Yield | 7.36% | SRBI yield offers an attractive carry advantage, supporting foreign inflows into Indonesian instruments. |
| Brent Crude Oil Price | 89 USD/bbl | Elevated crude prices around $90/bbl continue to strain external trade balances across net energy-importing Asian economies. |
| Philippines Monthly Trade Deficit | -6.0 USD bn | July imports surged 59.7%yoy versus 19.8%yoy export growth, widening the deficit and pressuring PHP. |
Reports in this series
Asia FX Weekly is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 28, 2026.
Part of the Asia FX Weekly series — view all 12 editions
Looking for the latest edition? Asia FX Weekly Focus on China data and US CPI (Sep 4, 2026)
- May 11Asia FX Weekly - Focus on Trump-Xi meeting
- May 18Asia FX Weekly - China’s macro data and BI meeting key
- May 25Asia FX Weekly - A US-driven week for Asia FX ahead
- Jun 1Asia FX Weekly - Asia inflation data and RBI meeting key
- Jun 2Asia FX Weekly - Asia inflation data and RBI meeting key
- Jun 8Asia FX Weekly - Asia exports and inflation data are key
- Jun 12Asia FX Weekly - Central bank decisions in focus
- Jun 19Asia FX Weekly - Tug of war between oil and US rates
- Jun 26MUFG Asia FX Weekly - Pivot towards US labour and Asia activity data 20260626
- Jul 3Asia FX Weekly - Focus on Asia's inflation data and FOMC minutes
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Bank of Korea Base Rate: 3.00 % (Current (as of 28 Aug 2026)) · Source: Bank of Korea, Bloomberg, MUFG GMR
- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Policy Rate: 5.00 % (Current (as of 28 Aug 2026)) · Source: BSP, Bloomberg, MUFG GMR
- Bank Indonesia 12-month SRBI Yield: 7.36 % (Current (as of 28 Aug 2026)) · Source: Bank Indonesia, Bloomberg, MUFG GMR
- Brent Crude Oil Price: 89 USD/bbl (28 Aug 2026) · Source: Bloomberg, MUFG GMR
- Philippines Monthly Trade Deficit: -6.0 USD bn (Jul 2026) · Source: Bloomberg, MUFG GMR