Report published August 17, 2026
Monex Europe Week Ahead: G10 Central Bank Divergence and FX Outlook
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Monex Europe
- Report date
- August 17, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Nick Rees, Barry Van Der Laan
Finvaulta summarizes Monex Europe's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Monex previews key economic releases and central bank outlooks for the week of August 17–21, 2026, across the UK, Canada, Australia, Sweden, Japan, and the Eurozone. The team anticipates stable policy from the BoC and Riksbank, downside risks for GBP on easing UK wage pressures, upside risks for AUDUSD, and confirmation of a September BoJ rate hike.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.25% in September, looking through energy-driven headline CPI strength as underlying core inflation remains contained near 1.8-2.0%.
- 2.UK wage cooling and core disinflation are expected to push back on Bank of England rate hike bets, leaving sterling vulnerable to fiscal concerns ahead of the autumn budget.
- 3.The Riksbank is poised for a hawkish hold at 1.75%, maintaining optionality to hike later this year, though widening policy divergence with the ECB leaves EURSEK positioned to grind higher toward 11.20.
Table of Contents
- INTRODUCTION
- ECONOMIC CALENDAR
- DATA PREVIEWS
- Canada CPI preview: Continuing to look through energy distortions
- UK data preview: Pushing back on hiking bets again
- Australia jobs preview: Shaping the September debate
- Riksbank preview: Hold now, keep the hike alive
- Japan CPI preview: September hike needs confirmation, not permission
- PMIs preview: Back to reality as July's boost fades
- General disclosure
- Market specific disclosures
Report data
Disinflation progress across core-median and core-trim price growth is expected to have stalled in July, though this would leave both measures broadly tracking in line with the BoC inflation target
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Canada Headline CPI YoY | 3.00% | Consensus expectation lifting headline inflation to the top of BoC's 1-3% target range. |
| Bank of Canada Policy Rate | 2.25% | Held for a sixth consecutive meeting in July. |
| Riksbank Policy Rate | 1.75% | Expected to remain on hold at 1.75% during the August meeting. |
| Probability of BoJ September Rate Hike | 75% | Implied probability priced in swap markets for a Bank of Japan hike in September. |
Reports in this series
Week Ahead is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 17, 2026.
Part of the Week Ahead series — view all 4 editions
Document Preview
Access the Full Report
Get unlimited access to institutional research reports. Create an account to get started.
Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Canada Headline CPI YoY: 3.00 % (2026-07) · Source: Bloomberg
- Bank of Canada Policy Rate: 2.25 % (2026-07) · Source: Monex Europe
- Riksbank Policy Rate: 1.75 % (2026-08-20) · Source: Monex Europe
- Probability of BoJ September Rate Hike: 75 % (2026-08-13) · Source: Monex Europe