Report published September 28, 2026
A Stronger Dollar Backdrop: Monex Europe Weekly FX Outlook
Monex Europe · September 28, 2026
Monex Europe expects the US dollar to remain supported as Middle East energy shocks and US inflation concerns clear the path for a follow-up Fed rate hike in October. While the RBA is poised to raise rates to 4.60%, dovish guidance due to domestic labor loosening tilts AUD/USD risks to the downside.
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Finvaulta summarizes Monex Europe's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Rising Treasury yields, elevated oil prices above $100/bbl due to Middle East tensions, and building Fed rate hike expectations are supporting a stronger US dollar.
- 2.The RBA is expected to hike its cash rate by 25bp to 4.60%, but cautious forward guidance driven by rising unemployment could leave AUD/USD tilted to the downside.
- 3.US September Nonfarm Payrolls are projected around 60-80k (below consensus of 100k), but steady unemployment at 4.1% would keep the door open for another Fed hike in October.
Table of Contents
- INTRODUCTION
- ECONOMIC CALENDAR
- DATA PREVIEWS
- RBA preview: What next?
- US jobs preview: Unlikely to derail further tightening
Report data
Tuesday 29/09 Economic Calendar
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| DXY Index Level | 101 index points | DXY index trading over half a percent stronger, struggling to hold 101 level |
| RBA Cash Rate Target | 4.60% | Expected rate hike from 4.35% prior |
| Australia Unemployment Rate | 4.6% | Highest since late 2021 |
| Brent Crude Price | 100 USD/barrel | Brent crude has again risen above $100/bbl due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions |
| Fed Funds Target Rate Range | 3.75-4.00% | Fed lifted the funds rate to 3.75-4.00% in a unanimous 12-0 vote |
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