Report published August 27, 2026
Japan Inflation Trends & BOJ Rate Hike Outlook: Mizuho Macro Analysis
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Mizuho Securities
- Report date
- August 27, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Yusuke Matsuo
Finvaulta summarizes Mizuho Securities's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
The Bank of Japan appears positioned to accelerate rate hikes as underlying inflation approaches 2% and household inflation expectations surge. Mizuho expects three additional hikes (September 2026, January 2027, and June 2027) bringing the terminal policy rate to 1.75%.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Bank of Japan is contemplating faster rate hikes as underlying trend inflation approaches 2% and the risk of an inflation overshoot outweighs downside economic risks.
- 2.Medium- to long-term household and corporate inflation expectations are accelerating upward, with June 2026 survey data showing a surge in public expectations of significant price increases over the next five years.
- 3.Mizuho's base case forecasts three further BOJ rate hikes in September 2026, January 2027, and June 2027, reaching a terminal policy rate of 1.75%.
Table of Contents
- Underlying inflation trends, the prospect of faster BOJ rate hikes, and why household inflation expectations have been strengthening
- Important Disclosure Information
- Analyst Certification
- Disclaimer
- Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd.
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (ex fresh food and institutional factors) YoY | 2.3% | Slowed from +2.6% in June but remained above +2% for a 22nd successive month. |
| Core-core CPI inflation (ex fresh food, energy, institutional factors) | 2.2% | Accelerated slightly in July 2026. |
| Western core CPI inflation (ex food, energy, institutional factors) | 1.6% | Accelerated slightly in July 2026. |
| Trimmed Mean CPI Inflation | 2.0% | Reported under BOJ's Indicators for Core CPI. |
| Weighted Median CPI Inflation | 1.1% | Reported under BOJ's Indicators for Core CPI. |
Reports in this series
Macro Information is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 27, 2026.
Part of the Macro Information series — view all 8 editions
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Core CPI (ex fresh food and institutional factors) YoY: 2.3 % (2026-07) · Source: BOJ / Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
- Core-core CPI inflation (ex fresh food, energy, institutional factors): 2.2 % (2026-07) · Source: BOJ
- Western core CPI inflation (ex food, energy, institutional factors): 1.6 % (2026-07) · Source: BOJ
- Trimmed Mean CPI Inflation: 2.0 % (2026-07) · Source: BOJ
- Weighted Median CPI Inflation: 1.1 % (2026-07) · Source: BOJ
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