Report published September 28, 2026
Mizuho Rates Strategy: Ueda's Press Conference: Numerous Signals of Faster Rate Hikes
Mizuho Securities · September 28, 2026
Mizuho analyzes BOJ Governor Ueda's September post-meeting press conference, which indicated a faster pace of rate hikes (approximately every three to four months) while framing consecutive or 50bp hikes as emergency measures. The strategists expect the next hike in December and maintain existing positions receiving JPY OIS vs. paying USD OIS in 20s10s and staying long 20y JGB ASWs.
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Finvaulta summarizes Mizuho Securities's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.BOJ Governor Ueda signaled a shift toward hiking rates faster than the previous six-month cadence, shifting to an asymmetric approach to inflation risks, but clarified that back-to-back or 50bp hikes remain emergency measures.
- 2.Mizuho's baseline view projects the next BOJ policy rate hike in December 2026 (target call rate to 1.50%), viewing an October hike hurdle as relatively high even if the Fed hikes in October.
- 3.Market pricing of a BOJ terminal rate above 2% appears excessive; JGB yields are expected to remain elevated near-term but decline in 2027 as rate-hike expectations fade and energy inflation subsides.
Table of Contents
- (1) Ueda’s press conference: Numerous signals of faster rate hikes
- DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEK AND IMPLICATIONS FOR RATES OUTLOOK
- SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK (ONE WEEK – ONE MONTH)
- MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK (SEVERAL MONTHS – ONE YEAR)
- Risk scenarios
- (2) Policy costs and benefits of back-to-back rate hikes
- (3) Yen rates relative value and investment strategies
- INVESTMENT STRATEGIES
- RELATIVE VALUE SCORE TABLES
Report data
Chart 2.1. 1y-forward 1m JPY–USD OIS spread vs. USD/JPY — as of September 25, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Market implied probability of Fed rate hike in October | 70% | Market pricing of a second consecutive Fed rate hike at the October FOMC meeting. |
| Market implied probability of BOJ rate hike in December | 90% | Market pricing of the next BOJ policy rate hike. |
| BOJ Overnight Call Rate Target Forecast (Oct-Dec 2026) | 1.50% | Mizuho base-case end-quarter forecast for the overnight call rate target. |
| 10y JGB Yield Level | 3.072% | Current level and change since last report. |
| 10y JGB Yield Forecast (Oct-Dec 2026) | 2.90% | Quarterly base-case end-quarter forecast with an expected range of 2.60% to 3.20%. |
Reports in this series
Rates Strategy Weekly is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 28, 2026.
Part of the Rates Strategy Weekly series — view all 17 editions
- Aug 17JGB Strategy
- Aug 24JGB Strategy Aug 24
- Aug 31JGB Strategy | Strategy Weekly
- Sep 14JGB Strategy Weekly
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