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Mizuho Securities

Strategy Information

Finvaulta tracks 6 editions of Strategy Information from Mizuho Securities, published between August 31, 2026 and October 5, 2026. Each edition is summarized on its own page.

Latest edition · October 5, 2026

JGB Strategy

Heading into Japan's JPY2.6 trillion 10y JGB auction, elevated absolute yields around 3.10% and favorable carry/vol metrics support demand, though fiscal policy concerns in Japan and France warrant caution. Mizuho recommends expressing demand through 10y asset swap longs and 10s20s curve steepeners.

Ahead of the Japanese Ministry of Finance's auction of approximately JPY2.6 trillion in new 10y JGBs (JB384), Mizuho outlines the key drivers for bidding demand. High outright yields (JB383 at 3.100%), relative value cheapness versus 20s and super-long tenors, and easing market expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve hikes provide solid support. However, fiscal uncertainties dampen sentiment, including Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Diet policy speech and fiscal expansion concerns, alongside widening French sovereign bond spreads over German bunds. Mizuho recommends tactical implementation via 10y asset swap longs to harvest Sharpe-efficient carry, paired with 10s20s steepeners as a hedge for an expected 10–15 trading-day holding horizon.

Read the latest edition in full

Key takeaways from the latest edition

  • 1.Japan MOF plans to auction ~JPY2.6T of the new 10y JGB (JB384) with support from high absolute yield levels (JB383 at 3.100%) and dialing-back Fed hawkishness concerns.
  • 2.Domestic and foreign fiscal risks pose headwinds: Diet questioning of PM Sanae Takaichi and French budget/deficit turmoil could weigh on investor sentiment.
  • 3.Rather than outright longs, investors should consider 10y ASW longs for attractive carry/volatility and 10s20s steepeners as a hedge against fiscal risks.

What this series covers

  • Positives and negatives ahead of the 10y auction
  • POTENTIAL POSITIVES
  • POTENTIAL NEGATIVES
  • (2) Auction strategy
  • CONSIDER ASW LONGS AND 10S20S STEEPENERS
  • (3) Key charts

Edition archive

Series at a glance

Editions tracked
6
First edition
August 31, 2026
Latest edition
October 5, 2026
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