Global Economy and Finance Weekly Watch

Latest edition · July 6, 2026

Japan Macro

Mizuho’s Macro Weekly outlines a gradual BOJ rate hike path to 1.5% by mid-2027, supported by strong Tankan business sentiment, while tempering inflation concerns following the US-Iran framework agreement.

The report highlights Japan's robust economic sentiment as captured by the June BOJ Tankan survey, where nonmanufacturer sentiment reached levels unseen since 1991. Despite these positive indicators, the Macro team maintains a moderate outlook for the BOJ policy rate, projecting a terminal rate of 1.5% by 2Q 2027. This view contrasts with current market pricing of 2%, as the analysts anticipate that geopolitical easing in the Middle East reduces the urgency for aggressive tightening and that inflationary pressures will remain manageable.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.The BOJ is expected to raise the policy rate to 1.25% by December 2026 and 1.50% by June 2027.
• 2.June BOJ Tankan survey showed strong sentiment, with large manufacturers' DI at +22 and large nonmanufacturers at +37, the highest since 1991.

What this series covers

• Review of key indicators and events
• Economic indicators
• BOJ-related events
• Economic outlook (as of 6 July)
• Comments on real GDP outlook
• Comments on CPI outlook
• Comments on domestic rates outlook
• Important Disclosure Information
• Analyst Certification
• Disclaimer

Edition archive

• Japan Macro

  July 6, 2026

• Mizuho Fixed Income Japan Global economy and finance: Weekly watch (22 June)

  June 22, 2026

• Japan Macro

  June 15, 2026

• Mizuho Fixed Income Japan Global economy and finance: Weekly watch (8 June)

  June 9, 2026

• Mizuho- Global economy and finance: Weekly watch (18 May)

  May 18, 2026

• Mizuho Global economy and finance: Weekly watch (11 May)

  May 12, 2026