Report published September 1, 2026
Japan Inflation Outlook: Quantitative Analysis of Surging Packaging Costs and Falling Rice Prices
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Mizuho Securities
- Report date
- September 1, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Ryosuke Katagi, Yusuke Matsuo
Finvaulta summarizes Mizuho Securities's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Mizuho's quantitative analysis shows that surging packaging material costs will accelerate Japan's food CPI inflation into 2027 despite downward pressure from falling retail rice prices. As a result, the BOJ's core CPI gauge is forecast to reach 2.5–3.0% in Q2 2027.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Surging crude oil and naphtha prices from Middle East/Iran tensions drove the Plastic Packaging Materials Index up 12.4% YoY in July 2026, which historically leads Japanese food CPI by six months.
- 2.While falling rice prices are expected to subtract roughly 0.8ppt from YoY food CPI growth by end-2026, this downward pressure is outweighed by rising packaging costs.
- 3.Mizuho forecasts the Bank of Japan's preferred core CPI gauge to accelerate to the 2.5–3.0% range in April–June 2027.
Table of Contents
- Food inflation set to accelerate on rising packaging and material prices
- Falling rice prices expected to lower food price inflation, but...
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Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Food and beverage items facing price hikes | 4923 items | Teikoku Databank price revision trend survey of 195 major food companies |
| Plastic Packaging Materials Index growth | 12.4 % YoY | Calculated from Corporate Goods Price Index |
| CPI food component YoY growth (ex fresh food) | 3.0 % YoY | Baseline food inflation before anticipated packaging cost pass-through |
| Average retail price of rice (5kg bag) | 3156 JPY | Supermarket retail price compiled by MAFF |
| BOJ preferred gauge of core CPI inflation forecast | 2.5–3.0% | Core CPI forecast excluding consumption tax cut and other special factors |
Reports in this series
Macro Information is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 1, 2026.
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Food and beverage items facing price hikes: 4923 items (September 2026) · Source: Teikoku Databank
- Plastic Packaging Materials Index growth: 12.4 % YoY (July 2026) · Source: Corporate Goods Price Index / Mizuho
- CPI food component YoY growth (ex fresh food): 3.0 % YoY (July 2026) · Source: CPI
- Average retail price of rice (5kg bag): 3156 JPY (Week through 23 August 2026) · Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
- BOJ preferred gauge of core CPI inflation forecast: 2.5–3.0 % (April–June 2027) · Source: Mizuho
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