Report published September 30, 2026

Multi-Asset Strategy Daily: Yield Curve Steepening and Term Premium Repricing (Mizuho Securities)

Mizuho Securities · September 30, 2026

Front-end sovereign yields have eased alongside softer US macro data and declining energy prices, but aggressive curve steepening persists as long-end yields grapple with term premium and European fiscal risks. Duration markets require further sustained macroeconomic deterioration or energy weakness to establish a durable rally.

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Finvaulta summarizes Mizuho Securities's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Softer US economic data and dovish Fed commentary lowered October hike pricing from ~70% to ~45%, but persistent term premium drove aggressive curve steepening with 30Y yields briefly topping 5.60%.
2.Oil's drop below $90/bbl provides relief, but duration requires further activity deterioration or sustained lower energy prices to establish durable support.
3.French OAT-Bund spreads face relentless widening pressure due to domestic fiscal concerns, acting as an independent headwind to European government bond performance.

Report data

Key figures extracted from this report

Metric	Estimate	Context
October Fed hike probability	45%	Market pricing for an additional Federal Reserve rate hike dropped following softer JOLTS and dovish comments from Williams.
30Y US Treasury yield	5.6%	Briefly traded above this level for the first time since 2002.
2Y US Treasury yield	4.9%	Rallied back lower after Williams' dovish comments.
10Y US Treasury cash yield	5.22%	Consolidating, with 5.30%-5.35% viewed as the key near-term resistance area.
DXY Index level	101.315 index points	US Dollar Index traded lower after recent gains.