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Report published August 17, 2026

Mizuho Multi-Asset Strategy Daily: Global Sovereign Yield Curve Bear-Steepening & Fiscal Supply

Source and citation context

Report date
August 17, 2026
Analysis as of
Not stated in source

Authors / editors: Evelyne Gomez

Finvaulta summarizes Mizuho Securities's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Daily UpdateCommoditiesEquitiesFXEnergyInformation Technology

Mizuho's daily strategy note highlights a coordinated bear-steepening across global sovereign bond curves led by fiscal, supply, and energy risks. Front-end rates remain capped by softer data prints, but long-end yields face upward pressure into upcoming supply concessions.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Global sovereign bond curves experienced a bear-steepening move driven by heavy supply expectations, fiscal risks, and AI-driven funding requirements.
  • 2.EUR long-end rates and swap spreads cheapened with 10Y Bund yields returning to the top of their range and French OATs underperforming ahead of scheduled supply.
  • 3.GBP 10Y Gilt yields breached 5% amid steepening; market pricing of ~60bp BoE hikes in 1y1y SONIA OIS could moderate below 50bp if upcoming UK labour and CPI prints soften.

Table of Contents

  • USD
  • EUR
  • GBP
  • JPY
  • Important Information
  • Disclaimer

Report data

Key figures extracted from this report

MetricEstimateContext
US 10-Year Treasury Yield4.7%10Y UST yields back near 4.70% amid bear-steepening move
Fed September Hike Pricing7.0 bpPriced into the September FOMC meeting
Brent Crude Price Range88-89.5 $/bblBrent contained despite US-Iran MoU deadline headline risk
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield5.0%10Y Gilt yields pushed through the 5% level
1y1y SONIA OIS Implied Hikes60.0 bpCurrent market pricing for BoE hikes this cycle

Reports in this series

Multi-Asset Strategy Daily is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 17, 2026.

Part of the Multi-Asset Strategy Daily series — view all 5 editions

Looking for the latest edition? Strategy Daily (Sep 6, 2026)

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Authors / Editors

Evelyne Gomez

Reported Data Context

  • US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.7 % (Current)
  • Fed September Hike Pricing: 7.0 bp (September FOMC)
  • Brent Crude Price Range: 88-89.5 $/bbl (Current)
  • UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 5.0 % (Current)
  • 1y1y SONIA OIS Implied Hikes: 60.0 bp (This cycle)

Securities

Brent Crude OilUS 10-year Treasury yieldUK 10-Year Gilt YieldGermany 10-Year Bund YieldFrench Sovereign Bonds (OAT)1y1y SONIA OIS

Themes

Global Sovereign Yield Curve Bear-SteepeningSovereign Debt Supply Concessions & Fiscal DeficitsGeopolitical Headline Risk vs. Physical Oil Markets

Regions

North AmericaEuropeUKUnited StatesGermanyFrance

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Mizuho SecuritiesDaily UpdateRates Govt BondsCommodities

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