Japan July 2026 Industrial Production: Petrochemical Rebound and Outlook — Mizuho Securities

Japan's industrial production rose 0.1% MoM in July, beating expectations as petrochemical output rebounded above pre-conflict levels via alternative US imports. Mizuho expects August production to contract due to factory shutdowns caused by the July 28 Kumamoto earthquake.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Japan's July Indices of Industrial Production rose 0.1% MoM, beating Bloomberg consensus expectations of a 0.7% decline and marking four consecutive months of MoM expansion.
• 2.Basic petrochemical production rebounded 14.7% MoM in July to surpass pre-Middle East conflict levels, aided by alternative crude and petroleum procurement primarily from the US.
• 3.Despite official survey forecasts indicating a 6.4% MoM rise in August production, Mizuho forecasts a MoM drop due to auto and electronics factory disruptions from the July 28 Kumamoto earthquake.

Table of Contents

• Results and thoughts
• The situation in the Middle East
• Mizuho Securities Forecast
• Important Disclosure Information
• Analyst Certification
• Disclaimer

Report data

Chart 1. Trends in production indices for crude oil-related products (Seasonally-adjusted)

Reports in this series

Macro Information is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 31, 2026.

Part of the Macro Information series — view all 8 editions

Looking for the latest edition? Japan Macro (Sep 4, 2026)

1. Aug 17Japan Macro Information
2. Aug 26Japan Macro
3. Aug 27Japan Macro

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