Report published September 2, 2026
30y JGB Auction Preview: Risk Factors, Asset Swaps, and 30s40s Steepeners
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Mizuho Securities
- Report date
- September 2, 2026
- Analysis as of
- September 1, 2026
Authors / editors: Yuhi Kawano
Finvaulta summarizes Mizuho Securities's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Mizuho Securities recommends caution ahead of the upcoming JPY600bn 30y JGB auction due to BOJ and Fed policy uncertainties, fiscal expansion concerns, and rising oil prices. For investors entering the auction, 30y asset swaps and 30s40s steepeners are highlighted as favorable trade structures.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Caution is advised ahead of the JPY600 billion 30y JGB reopening (JX91) due to BOJ rate hike speculation, Fed hawkishness, fiscal expansion risks, and elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions.
- 2.Absolute yields north of 4% (closing at 4.180% on 1 September) and relative value cheapness versus 20s offer baseline appeal for yield-focused super-long investors.
- 3.Investors looking to participate should consider 30y asset swaps (ASW) to generate carry and 30s40s steepeners to position for curve steepening with limited downside risk.
Table of Contents
- (1) Positives and negatives ahead of the 30y auction
- POTENTIAL POSITIVES
- POTENTIAL NEGATIVES
- Auction strategy
- CONSIDER ASSET SWAPS AND 30S40S STEEPENERS
- (2) Key charts
- Important Disclosure Information
- Analyst Certification
- Disclaimer
Report data
Chart 2.1. Analysis of past performance and rankings by various criteria — as of September 1, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 30y JGB Yield Closing Level | 4.18% | 30y JGB yield closed 1 September above its previous peak reached in mid-May. |
| Planned 30y JGB Auction Size | 600.0 JPY billion | Planned reopening of 30y JGB issue JX91. |
| 2y-forward 1m OIS Rate | 2.4% | Markets pricing in BOJ rate hikes. |
| Market-implied September FOMC Rate Hike Probability | 70.0% | Implied probability following Jackson Hole and Fed Governor Barr statements. |
| FY2027 Initial General Account Budget Requests | 143.0 JPY trillion | Total initial budget requests submitted on final day. |
Reports in this series
Strategy Information is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 2, 2026.
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- 30y JGB Yield Closing Level: 4.18 % (2026-09-01) · Source: Mizuho Securities Fixed Income Research
- Planned 30y JGB Auction Size: 600.0 JPY billion (2026-09-03)
- 2y-forward 1m OIS Rate: 2.4 % (2026-09)
- Market-implied September FOMC Rate Hike Probability: 70.0 % (2026-09)
- FY2027 Initial General Account Budget Requests: 143.0 JPY trillion (FY2027)
Securities
Themes
Regions
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