Report published September 30, 2026
Multi-Asset Strategy Daily: Persistent Sovereign Rates Bearishness and 10Y UST Yields Near Cycle Highs
Mizuho International · September 30, 2026
Global rates markets face continued selling pressure, with 10Y US Treasury yields hovering near cycle highs around 5.24% amidst resilient oil prices and sticky inflation indicators. Cross-market dynamics saw Gilts outperform Bunds and USTs, while the US dollar remained broadly supported.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.US Treasuries remain under pressure with 10Y yields hovering around 5.24% near cycle highs, supported by resilient oil prices and market expectations of further Fed tightening.
- 2.European rates face headwinds from upside surprises in Spanish CPI, firm Brent crude prices, and upcoming sovereign supply, keeping pressure on Bunds and peripheral spreads.
- 3.Gilts outperformed cross-market peers on relative-value dynamics and UK fiscal discipline rhetoric, while goods inflation showed signs of easing.
Table of Contents
- USD
- EUR
- GBP
- JPY
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US 10Y Treasury Yield | 5.24% | Holding near yesterday's peak of 5.27% and highest levels since 2007. |
| Brent Crude Price | 107 USD/barrel | Supported by reports that Iranian officials are pessimistic on a deal before midterms. |
| Fed October Rate Hike Probability | 70% | Market implied odds of a policy hike in October. |
| Spanish Headline CPI | 4.9 % YoY | Spanish inflation data showing persistent price pressures. |
| Spanish Core CPI | 3.1 % YoY | Upside surprise keeping hawkish Euribor repricing intact. |
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Multi-Asset Strategy Daily is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 30, 2026.
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