Report published September 28, 2026
On the Ground: Japan's Nuclear Restarts – Macquarie Sector Report
Macquarie · September 28, 2026
A site visit to TEPCO's Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Unit 6 confirms Japan's engineering capability to restart idled reactors, though Chubu Electric's withdrawal of Hamaoka Units 3 and 4 removes 2.24GW from the late-2020s pipeline. Japan's around-2030 identifiable restart queue has shrunk to ~3.4GW, highlighting that restarts must be evaluated plant-by-plant rather than assumed via broad policy timelines.
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Finvaulta summarizes Macquarie's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.TEPCO's Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Unit 6 (1.36GW) returned to commercial operation in April 2026, marking TEPCO's first operating unit since Fukushima and proving large idled reactors can return.
- 2.Chubu Electric withdrew restart applications for Hamaoka Units 3 and 4 (2.24GW) due to flawed seismic assessment methodology, removing them from the late-2020s queue into the 2030s.
- 3.Japan remains committed to expanding nuclear generation to roughly 20% by 2040 (up from 9% today), but the identifiable queue around 2030 has narrowed to approximately 3.4GW across Tomari 3, Tokai Daini, and KK7.
Table of Contents
- Key Points
- A rare look at a crucial restart
- Hamaoka is bad news, not a policy reversal
- Reminder of the export opportunities for Japan
- Top sector picks unchanged; key catalysts
- Energy Transition & Critical Minerals Asia
- A rare look at a restart
- The scandal elsewhere
- Global plans still need to become orders
- Four visits across the Japanese value chain
- Global peers valuations for nuclear basket
Report data
Figure 6 - Japan restart outlook: what has moved
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Unit 6 capacity | 1.36 GW | Reactor capacity of KK6, which returned to commercial operation on 16 April 2026. |
| Kashiwazaki-Kariwa total site capacity across 7 units | 8.2 GW | Total installed capacity of the world's largest nuclear power station. |
| Hamaoka Units 3 and 4 combined capacity removed from queue | 2.24 GW | Capacity removed from the late-2020s restart queue following application withdrawal by Chubu Electric. |
| Japan target nuclear power generation share by 2040 | 20% | National target for nuclear power generation share, up from 9% today. |
| Japan current nuclear power generation share | 9% | Current share of nuclear in Japan's total power generation. |
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