Report published September 30, 2026

Inside Commodities: Gulf Oil Export Rebound, Diesel Reserves, and Agricultural Supply Shocks

London Stock Exchange Group · September 30, 2026

Gulf crude exports have returned to 2025 averages of 23.3 million bpd, supporting projections for Brent crude to ease to $85/bbl by year-end despite ongoing Middle East tensions. Across agricultural and industrial sectors, Brazilian sugar output faces climate-driven constraints, EU grain crops face sharp downgrades, and Chinese soybean imports remain suppressed by negative crush margins.

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Finvaulta summarizes London Stock Exchange Group's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Gulf oil exports rebounded to 23.3 million bpd in September, led by crude and dark shipments via Hormuz, supporting Goldman Sachs' expectation of Brent moderating to $85/bbl by year-end.
2.The White House is pressing EU allies to tap emergency diesel reserves to counter fuel inflation, while the EU considers delaying its methane import law to safeguard winter supply.
3.Heavy rainfall in Brazil is forcing sugarcane mills to prioritize ethanol over sugar despite a 21% rally in raw sugar prices.

Top News - Oil
Gulf crude oil exports return to 2025 level, Goldman Sachs says
White House urges EU to draw down diesel inventories, sources say
Top News - Agriculture
ANALYSIS-Weather, not price, to drive Brazil mills on sugar production
EU cuts maize crop forecast to lowest this century
Top News - Metals
EXCLUSIVE-Ghana's environmental authority targets Chinese-owned Cardinal and others in mining crackdown
India targets 600 million tons steel capacity by 2047, secretary says
Top News - Carbon and Power
ANALYSIS-Alternative capital powers America's next wave of LNG and pipeline projects
EU eyes methane law delay, IEA to discuss oil stock releases if needed
Top News - Dry Freight
China's weak soybean demand dims prospects for US cargoes after tariff snub
EU rejects renegotiating Ukraine's export quotas

Report data

Key figures extracted from this report

Metric	Estimate	Context
Gulf oil exports	23.3 million barrels per day	Recovered to 2025 average levels, including dark exports.
Gulf dark oil exports	5.2 million barrels per day	Estimated dark exports via ships operating with disabled transponders.
EU maize production forecast	48.3 million metric tons	Cut to lowest level since at least 2000 following summer drought.
Alternative capital transactions in US LNG & midstream	20.35 billion USD	More than double the total value of deals struck in all of 2024.
Chinese crushing plant soybean inventory	7.96 million metric tons	Inventories at 111 Chinese processing plants reached highest levels in at least 15 years.