Report published September 3, 2026
JPMorgan US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing – September 3, 2026
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- JPMorgan Chase
- Report date
- September 3, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Andrew Tyler, Federico Manicardi, Ellen Wang, Victoria Campos, John Schlegel
Finvaulta summarizes JPMorgan Chase's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence maintains a Tactically Cautious/Neutral outlook on US equities amid impending macro catalysts including ISM-Services and August payrolls. The desk recommends long NDX versus short RTY, rotating within tech from semis into Mag7 and software.
Key Takeaways
- 1.JPM Market Intelligence shifts to a tactically cautious/neutral stance due to Fed meeting uncertainty, choppy positioning, September seasonality, credit spread widening post-Labor Day, and momentum factor unwinds.
- 2.The team advocates playing long NDX versus short RTY, emphasizing mega-cap tech (Mag7) and software over semiconductors/AI winners, while remaining cautious on small caps.
- 3.August hedge fund positioning showed a further reset back to neutral with de-grossing bottoming out; gross flows were -0.2z and US TPM 4-week change rebounded to +0.5z from -2z.
Table of Contents
- IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF
- JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES
- CATALYSTS TODAY (WEEK AHEAD)
- JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE
- POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE – Prime Time / Monthly Wrap | A Further Reset on Many Fronts
- NEW US MARKET INTEL MID-TERM ELECTION SERIES
- Election Odds for 2026 U.S. Midterm Election
- JPM 2026 US Midterm Election Thematic Baskets
- JPM MKT INTEL: NFP SCENARIO ANALYSIS
- US MKT INTEL VIEW
- ROADMAP TO 26Q4
- NEWS LINKS
- WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA / EARNINGS
- US CALENDAR
- GLOBAL CALENDAR
- AI / TECH CATALYSTS
- POLITICAL CATALYSTS
Report data
Election Odds for 2026 U.S. Midterm Election
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 10-Year US Treasury Yield | 4.772% | Morning US bond market pre-market trading level. |
| Gold Price | 4439 USD/oz | Pre-market gold price level and change. |
| WTI Crude Price | 91.36 USD/bbl | Crude oil pre-market price. |
| JPM US TPM 4-Week Positioning Change | +0.5 z-score | Measures rebound in US equity positioning to neutral (~40th percentile since 2015). |
| ISM Services Expected Print (Feroli) | 54.0 index points | JPMorgan Economics forecast for August ISM Services. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.772 % (2026-09-03) · Source: Bloomberg / JPM
- Gold Price: 4439 USD/oz (2026-09-03)
- WTI Crude Price: 91.36 USD/bbl (2026-09-03)
- JPM US TPM 4-Week Positioning Change: +0.5 z-score (August 2026) · Source: J.P. Morgan Prime Services
- ISM Services Expected Print (Feroli): 54.0 index points (August 2026) · Source: JP Morgan Economics