Report published August 28, 2026
JPMorgan Chase: Jackson Hole Fed Policy Review & US Economic Outlook
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- JPMorgan Chase
- Report date
- August 28, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Michael Feroli, Michael S Hanson, Abiel Reinhart, Bennett Parrish
Finvaulta summarizes JPMorgan Chase's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
J.P. Morgan evaluates Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole address as moderately hawkish, keeping a September rate hike live while maintaining December as its base case. Driven by robust 2Q corporate profits and upbeat spending data, 3Q GDP tracking was raised to 2.75%.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech was moderately hawkish, expressing comfort with full employment in the labor market while warning about inflation breadth and affirming short-term rates as the primary tool.
- 2.J.P. Morgan maintains its baseline that the FOMC will hold off hiking until December, though the September FOMC meeting remains live pending upcoming CPI data.
- 3.U.S. 3Q GDP tracking was raised from 2.50% to 2.75% following robust 2Q corporate profit growth and resilient consumer spending and equipment investment indicators.
Table of Contents
- More clarity at Jackson Hole
- Strength in profits
- Activity data looking solid
- Other matters to attend to
- Data releases and forecasts
- Establishment survey
- Seasonal factors and industry considerations
- Revisions
- Hours and earnings
- Household survey
- Review of past week's data
Report data
Figure 1: Pre-tax profit growth and profit margins
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. 3Q GDP Tracking | 2.75% | Raised tracking following upbeat economic indicators and stronger consumer spending. |
| Corporate Profits (Pre-tax) | 41 % q/q saar | Strongest quarterly outcome in five years, supporting hiring outlook. |
| Forecast Nonfarm Payrolls Change | 50 thousand | Forecast includes 40k private payrolls. |
| Forecast Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | Projected to hold steady at 4.1%. |
| Core PCE Price Index | 0.25 % m/m | Core PCE inflation running firm relative to CPI. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- U.S. 3Q GDP Tracking: 2.75 % (3Q 2026) · Source: J.P. Morgan
- Corporate Profits (Pre-tax): 41 % q/q saar (2Q 2026) · Source: BEA
- Forecast Nonfarm Payrolls Change: 50 thousand (August 2026) · Source: J.P. Morgan forecasts
- Forecast Unemployment Rate: 4.1 % (August 2026) · Source: J.P. Morgan forecasts
- Core PCE Price Index: 0.25 % m/m (July 2026) · Source: BEA