Report published August 31, 2026
J.P. Morgan US Market Intelligence: August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Scenario Analysis
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- J.P. Morgan
- Report date
- August 31, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 31, 2026
Authors / editors: Andrew Tyler (Head of Global Market Intelligence), Federico Manicardi (Head of International Market Intelligence), Ellen Wang, Victoria Campos
Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
J.P. Morgan US Market Intelligence previews the August Nonfarm Payrolls report, expecting +50k jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate. The desk models an SPX implied move of 1.1% under a 'Good News is Bad News' regime with a Goldilocks sweet spot of 30k–70k.
Key Takeaways
- 1.JPMorgan Economics expects August NFP to rise by 50k (vs. 55k consensus) with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% and average hourly earnings up 0.25% MoM (3.0% YoY).
- 2.The desk views NFP as operating in a 'Good News is Bad News' environment where stronger jobs data pushes bond yields higher and weighs on equities.
- 3.The highest probability desk scenario (30%) is a print of 35k–65k, yielding an SPX reaction of -25bp to +50bp, with a 'Goldilocks' range between 30k and 70k.
Table of Contents
- US MKT INTEL'S NFP SCENARIO ANALYSIS
- FEROLI'S PREVIEW
- Labor market indicators
- Establishment survey
- Seasonal factors and industry considerations
- Revisions
- Hours and earnings
- Household survey
- JP MORGAN GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE
- DATA ASSETS & ALPHA GROUP
Report data
Labor-market report — as of August 31, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast Nonfarm Payrolls Change | 50 k | JPMorgan Economics forecast for August nonfarm payroll employment |
| Forecast Unemployment Rate (U.3) | 4.1% | JPMorgan Economics forecast for August unemployment rate |
| Forecast Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.25% | JPMorgan Economics forecast for monthly hourly earnings growth |
| SPX Options Implied Move | 1.1% | Options implied move for SPX expiring Sept 4, 2026 based on Aug 31 data |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Forecast Nonfarm Payrolls Change: 50 k (2026-08) · Source: JP Morgan Economics
- Forecast Unemployment Rate (U.3): 4.1 % (2026-08) · Source: JP Morgan Economics
- Forecast Average Hourly Earnings MoM: 0.25 % (2026-08) · Source: JP Morgan Economics
- SPX Options Implied Move: 1.1 % (2026-09-04)