Report published September 28, 2026
J.P. Morgan: US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing (September 28, 2026)
J.P. Morgan · September 28, 2026
J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence returns to a Tactically Bullish equity stance as bond yields stabilize and oil prices trend lower amid persistent ~5% economic growth. The desk advises maintaining core long Tech exposure while unwinding small-cap shorts to account for short-squeeze risk.
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Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence has upgraded its tactical view to Tactically Bullish, unwinding its previous Cautious/Neutral stance due to strong macro growth fundamentals, consumer resilience, and the expectation that Treasury yields will stabilize near current levels.
- 2.The team updates its 'Monetization Menu' to maintain Tech as a core Long (favoring Semis and Mag7) while dropping the Russell 2000 short hedge due to upside squeeze risks stemming from potential declines in oil prices and bond yields.
- 3.US/Iran negotiations remain a central catalyst; a potential diplomatic deal would trigger an equity short squeeze led by small caps (RTY) and Europe, accompanied by falling oil prices and a bull-steepening yield curve.
Table of Contents
- IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF
- JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES
- CATALYSTS TODAY (WEEK AHEAD)
- JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE
- LAST WEEK
- US MKT INTEL VIEW
- ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS
- POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE – Weekly Wrap | Rate Risks and Health Hazards Offset by AI Optimism
- US FIXED INCOME MARKETS WEEKLY
- NEWS LINKS
- WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA / EARNINGS
- POLITICAL CATALYSTS
Report data
SPX vs. MOVE INDEX [INVERTED]
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 10-Year US Treasury Yield | 5.226% | Morning level for the US 10-year benchmark bond yield. |
| WTI Crude Oil Price | 95.51 USD/barrel | Crude oil rising on absence of an immediate US/Iran agreement. |
| Flash PMI Growth Pace (Annualized Real GDP) | 5% | Flash PMIs pointing to robust growth impulse in the US economy. |
| S&P 500 Q3 2026 Consensus Earnings Growth | 28.9% | Expected earnings growth for SPX with 11.9% revenue growth and 15.0% margins. |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield Month-to-Date Change | 41 bps | Rise in 10-year yield during the month as bond volatility spiked. |
Reports in this series
US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 28, 2026.
Part of the US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing series — view all 71 editions
Looking for the latest edition? JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing (Oct 8, 2026)
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