Report published September 24, 2026
US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing – J.P. Morgan (September 24, 2026)
J.P. Morgan · September 24, 2026
J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence maintains a Tactically Cautious / Neutral market view as soaring oil prices and spiking bond yields weigh on equity sentiment. The desk recommends long Nasdaq 100 versus short Russell 2000 (+NDX vs. -RTY) while monitoring rate volatility and Middle East tensions.
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Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.JPM Market Intel maintains a Tactically Cautious / Neutral stance, recommending +NDX vs. -RTY as the core trade until crude oil prices and bond yields stabilize.
- 2.US flash Composite PMI surged to 58.4 (5-year high), indicating annualized real GDP growth around ~5%, but input cost inflation hit its fastest pace since 2020, prompting bond yields to spike.
- 3.Treasury auction demand showed severe fatigue, with the 5Y clearing at 5.033% with a 3.20 bp tail, reflecting spiking rate volatility and bond markets struggling to find a floor.
Table of Contents
- IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF
- JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES
- CATALYSTS TODAY (WEEK AHEAD)
- JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE
- SPX EPS GROWTH vs. NOMINAL GDP vs. REAL GDP
- NOMINAL GDP vs. FED FUNDS
- VIX vs. OIL VIX
- BONDS
- BOND AUCTION (MARISSA GITLER)
- FLASH PMIs
- US / UN
- Midweek Macro (Futures Positioning) | Positioning Stays Cautious...But Lack of Willingness to Press OATs vs. Bunds
- SUMMARY OF MAIN THEME & OTHER KEY POINTS ACROSS ASSET CLASSES
- MIDDLE EAST SCENARIO & TACTICAL TRADES – reposted from the Sep 23 Morning Briefing
- US MKT INTEL VIEW
- NEWS LINKS
- WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA / EARNINGS
- AI / TECH CATALYSTS
- POLITICAL CATALYSTS
Report data
5yr Auction Demand Stats
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Flash US Composite PMI | 58.4 index points | Highest reading since July 2021, compared to 55.3 survey and 56.0 prior. |
| Flash US Manufacturing PMI | 57.0 index points | Beat survey of 53.7 and prior reading of 53.9. |
| Flash US Services PMI | 58.7 index points | Strongest reading in nearly 5 years, vs. 55.8 survey and 56.5 prior. |
| 5Y US Treasury Auction Clearing Yield | 5.033% | Cleared at 5.033% with a 3.20 bp tail. |
| 5Y US Treasury Auction Bid-to-Cover Ratio | 2.21 ratio | Down from 2.37x last auction and 2.33x 3-auction average. |
Reports in this series
US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 24, 2026.
Part of the US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing series — view all 71 editions
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