Report published September 4, 2026

J.P. Morgan US Market Intelligence: Morning Briefing – September 4, 2026

J.P. Morgan · September 4, 2026

J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence maintains a Tactically Cautious / Neutral stance ahead of the August NFP report and upcoming CPI release. While underlying economic fundamentals and earnings remain solid, near-term seasonality, momentum factor unwinds, and Fed policy uncertainty suggest choppy sideways markets.

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Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.JPM Market Intel maintains a Tactically Cautious / Neutral stance, arguing that solid economic and earnings fundamentals will be overshadowed by choppy trading over the next 2-3 weeks amid Fed uncertainty and unfavorable seasonality.
2.For the August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli projects +50k jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate against consensus of +55k, with desk scenario analysis framing 30k–70k as the 'Goldilocks' range.
3.Next week's CPI print is viewed as a significantly more crucial catalyst than NFP for the September FOMC decision, as the labor market is seen as near full employment without generating excessive wage-driven inflation.

IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF
JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES
CATALYSTS TODAY (WEEK AHEAD)
JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE
THOUGHTS ON RATES
US MKT INTEL THOUGHTS ON ISM-SRVCS
OUR THOUGHTS ON THE FED POST WALLER SPEECH
JPM MKT INTEL: NFP SCENARIO ANALYSIS
US MKT INTEL VIEW – We published below in the Aug 24, 2026 Morning Briefing
ROADMAP TO 26Q4
NEWS LINKS
WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA / EARNINGS
AI / TECH CATALYSTS
POLITICAL CATALYSTS

Report data

Labor-market report

Metric	Estimate	Context
Nonfarm Payroll Employment Change (Forecast)	50 thousands	JPM economist Michael Feroli's estimate for August NFP vs Street estimate of 55k.
Unemployment Rate (U.3 Forecast)	4.1%	Feroli forecast vs 4.1% prior.
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Forecast)	3.0%	Projected annual wage growth decelerating from 3.2% in July.
SPX Options Implied Move	1.1%	Options expiring September 4, 2026 based on August 31 data.
WTI Crude Oil Price	90.61 USD/bbl	Morning commodity update.