Report published September 1, 2026

J.P. Morgan US Market Intelligence: Morning Briefing (September 1, 2026)

Source and citation context

Issuer: J.P. Morgan
Report date: September 1, 2026
Analysis as of: Not stated in source

Authors / editors: Andrew Tyler, Federico Manicardi, Ellen Wang, Victoria Campos

Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Daily UpdateCommoditiesEquitiesFXInformation TechnologyEnergy

J.P. Morgan US Market Intelligence moves to a tactically cautious/neutral stance as rising bond yields, energy supply risks from Middle East conflict, and September seasonality threaten equity market stability. The team recommends pairing long NDX against short RTY, rotating toward Mag7, Software, and Large-Cap Banks while hedging via short credit ETFs and long VIX options.

Key Takeaways

1.J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence has shifted to a Tactically Cautious / Neutral stance, expecting sideways chop over the next 2-3 weeks due to Fed rate hike risk, September seasonality, widening credit spreads, and momentum unwind.
2.Macro focus is centered on rising bond yields, driven by Middle East conflict pushing oil higher, higher perceived R-star, and upcoming ISM/CPI/NFP prints ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
3.The desk views the labor market in a 'Good News is Bad News' setup; NFP Goldilocks range is estimated between 30k and 70k, with JPM Economics forecasting +50k jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate.

IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF
JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES
CATALYSTS TODAY (WEEK AHEAD)
JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE
EARNINGS PREVIEW & BUYSIDE BARS – Josh Meyers
ASIA SEMIS: INFINITE TOKENS, FINITE ATOMS
MEMORY BOTTLENECK
2030 CAPEX AND FUNDING
JPM MKT INTEL: NFP SCENARIO ANALYSIS
US MKT INTEL VIEW
ROADMAP TO 26Q4
NEWS LINKS
WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA / EARNINGS
US CALENDAR
GLOBAL CALENDAR
AI / TECH CATALYSTS
POLITICAL CATALYSTS

Report data

AVGO Buyside vs Street Expectations

Metric	Estimate	Context
10-Year US Treasury Yield	4.786%	Benchmark 10-year Treasury yield in pre-market trade amid curve bear steepening.
WTI Crude Oil Price	87.9 USD/bbl	WTI crude oil up 250 bps following reports of attacks on supertankers.
AI Datacenter Electricity Consumption Forecast	1000 TWh	Forecasted AI datacenter electricity consumption, representing ~24% of US 2025 consumption.
Annual Datacenter Capex Forecast	3000 USD billions	Hyperscaler and datacenter capex spending forecast by 2030.
August Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast	50 thousands of jobs	JPM Economics (Feroli) projection for August payroll additions vs Street consensus of 55k.

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates; J.P. Morgan Cloud Capex Dataset, Bloomberg Finance L.P.; JP Morgan Economics. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

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US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 1, 2026.

Part of the US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing series — view all 58 editions

Looking for the latest edition? JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing (Sep 10, 2026)

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Authors / Editors

Andrew TylerFederico ManicardiEllen WangVictoria Campos

Reported Data Context

10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.786 % (2026-09-01)
WTI Crude Oil Price: 87.9 USD/bbl (2026-09-01)
AI Datacenter Electricity Consumption Forecast: 1000 TWh (2028) · Source: J.P. Morgan estimates
Annual Datacenter Capex Forecast: 3000 USD billions (2030) · Source: J.P. Morgan Cloud Capex Dataset, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
August Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast: 50 thousands of jobs (August 2026) · Source: JP Morgan Economics

Securities

RTYNDXSPXGOOGLVIXCLNVDAAVGO

Themes

Macro Curve Bear Steepening & Geopolitical Energy ShockAI Compute Scaling vs Infrastructure BottlenecksTactical Derisking Ahead of Live Fed Meetings

Regions

North AmericaEuropeAsia PacificUnited StatesJapanUnited Kingdom

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J.P. Morgan US Market Intelligence: Morning Briefing (September 1, 2026)

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