Report published August 31, 2026
J.P. Morgan US Market Intelligence: Morning Briefing – August 31, 2026
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- J.P. Morgan
- Report date
- August 31, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Andrew Tyler (Analyst), Federico Manicardi (Analyst), Ellen Wang (Analyst), Victoria Campos (Analyst), John Schlegel (Head of Group)
Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence adopts a Tactically Cautious / Neutral equity stance over the next 2–3 weeks due to Fed rate hike risks post-Jackson Hole and September seasonality. The team recommends positioning long NDX against short RTY while rotating within Tech toward Mag7 and Software.
Key Takeaways
- 1.J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence shifts its stance to Tactically Cautious / Neutral due to Fed hike uncertainty post-Jackson Hole, momentum unwinds, September seasonality, and upcoming credit issuance.
- 2.Tactical monetization strategy initiates a long NDX vs. short RTY stance, favors Mag7 and Software within Tech, and recommends Large-Cap Banks and Healthcare into midterms.
- 3.JPM Economics raised its 3Q GDP tracking estimate from 2.50% to 2.75% and sees global capex expanding, maintaining that underlying macro fundamentals and earnings remain solid into year-end.
Table of Contents
- IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF
- JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES
- CATALYSTS TODAY (WEEK AHEAD)
- JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE
- POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE – Weekly Wrap | Mixed Mkt View for Next Month; EU HC Bought with High Catch-up Potential
- MACRO UPDATE
- ROADMAP TO 26Q4
- NEWS LINKS
- WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA / EARNINGS
- AI / TECH CATALYSTS
- POLITICAL CATALYSTS
Report data
Jackson Hole Returns
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US 3Q GDP Tracking Estimate | 2.75% | Michael Feroli upgraded 3Q GDP tracking from 2.50% to 2.75% on strong private domestic demand. |
| Market Implied September Rate Hike Odds | 58% | OIS/Bond market implied hike odds rose from ~35-36% following Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole. |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.710% | Yield down 1-2 bps as curve bull steepens. |
| WTI Crude Oil Price | 86.20 USD/bbl | Up 336 bps on US/Iran attacks. |
| Corporate Profits Growth | 41 % QoQ saar | Best quarterly outcome in five years. |
Reports in this series
US Market Intelligence is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 31, 2026.
Part of the US Market Intelligence series — view all 5 editions
Looking for the latest edition? JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing (Sep 2, 2026)
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- US 3Q GDP Tracking Estimate: 2.75 % (3Q26) · Source: J.P. Morgan Economics
- Market Implied September Rate Hike Odds: 58 % (Current) · Source: J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence / OIS Market
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.710 % (Morning update) · Source: J.P. Morgan
- WTI Crude Oil Price: 86.20 USD/bbl (Morning update) · Source: J.P. Morgan
- Corporate Profits Growth: 41 % QoQ saar (2Q26) · Source: BEA / J.P. Morgan