Report published September 2, 2026
J.P. Morgan: 2026 US Midterm Election Outlook and Cross-Asset Trade Ideas
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- J.P. Morgan
- Report date
- September 2, 2026
- Analysis as of
- September 2, 2026
Authors / editors: Andrew Tyler (Head of Global Market Intelligence), Federico Manicardi (Head of International Market Intelligence), Ellen Wang (Market Intelligence Analyst), Victoria Campos (International Market Intelligence Analyst)
Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence reviews the 2026 US midterm election landscape, where betting markets project an 85% chance of Democrats taking the House and a 53% chance of Republicans retaining the Senate. The team details equity thematic basket pairs across Democratic, Split, and Republican Congressional scenarios.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Historical midterm trends and betting markets suggest Democrats taking the House (85% probability) while Republicans hold the Senate (53% probability).
- 2.Economy and affordability remain the primary voter concerns (29%), with trade tensions involving Canada posing risks to border-state races.
- 3.J.P. Morgan Delta 1 outlines cross-asset basket trade ideas for Congress outcomes: Democratic Congress (JPMDC26P), Split Congress (JPMSC26P), and Republican Congress (JPMRC26P).
Table of Contents
- SUMMARY
- ELECTION ODDS
- SCENARIOS & TRADE IDEAS
- KEY SENATE RACES
- KEY HOUSE RACES
- THE MONEY
- VOTER FRAUD
- VOTERS CONCERNS & TOP ISSUES
- JPM RESEARCH
- JP MORGAN GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Report data
DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS Basket Pair: JPMDC26P — as of September 2, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Betting market probability GOP holds Senate | 53.0% | Kalshi/Bloomberg betting odds for Senate control |
| Betting market probability Dems take House | 85.0% | Kalshi/Bloomberg betting odds for House control |
| Democratic Senate candidates fundraising | 584.9 USD million | Total raised across all Senate Democratic candidates |
| Voter concerns - The Economy | 29.0% | Pew Research survey on top voting issues for midterms |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Betting market probability GOP holds Senate: 53.0 % (2026-09-02) · Source: Kalshi / Bloomberg
- Betting market probability Dems take House: 85.0 % (2026-09-02) · Source: Kalshi / Bloomberg
- Democratic Senate candidates fundraising: 584.9 USD million (2026 Midterm Cycle) · Source: FEC.gov
- Voter concerns - The Economy: 29.0 % (2026) · Source: Pew Research