Report published September 9, 2026

J.P. Morgan: Trading the September 2026 CPI & S&P 500 Scenario Analysis

J.P. Morgan · September 9, 2026

J.P. Morgan US Market Intelligence previews the August CPI release, forecasting Headline MoM at +0.38% and Core MoM at +0.21%. Desk scenario analysis assigns a 65% probability of positive equity reactions on the day of the print.

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Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.JPM Economics forecasts August Headline CPI at +0.38% MoM (3.4% YoY) and Core CPI at +0.21% MoM (2.4% YoY), which is seen as low enough for the Fed to hold rates.
2.Market intelligence desk scenario analysis assigns a 65% combined probability to outcomes where Core MoM prints at or below 0.25%, which would prompt an estimated 0.50% to 2.0% SPX rally.
3.The bond market is pricing a ~63% chance of a 25bp rate hike at the September 16 FOMC, meaning a soft-to-consensus CPI print could trigger an equity relief rally led by Momentum, Tech, and Cyclicals.

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Report data

CPI %m/m, sa, unless noted — as of September 8, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
August Forecast Headline CPI MoM	0.38%	JPM Economics forecast for August headline CPI vs 0.4% survey and 0.1% prior.
August Forecast Core CPI MoM	0.21%	JPM Economics forecast for August core CPI vs 0.2% survey and 0.2% prior.
September 16 FOMC 25bp Rate Hike Implied Probability	63%	Pricing in bond markets ahead of September CPI release.
SPX Implied Move from Options Expiring September 11th	1.0%	Options pricing based on September 8th market prices.
Hedge Fund Gross Exposure Weekly Change	1.3 z-score	Hedge fund re-grossing added gross exposure on 4 of the past 5 days.