Report published August 25, 2026
J.P. Morgan Thematic Pulse: Tech Broadening, Dollar Debasement, and the Return of EM Equities
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- J.P. Morgan
- Report date
- August 25, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 25, 2026
Authors / editors: Andrew Tyler (Head of Global Market Intelligence), Federico Manicardi (Head of International Market Intelligence), Ellen Wang, Victoria Campos
Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
J.P. Morgan Global Market Intelligence highlights three core market themes for August 2026: tech broadening beyond semiconductors into hyperscalers and software, the revival of the dollar debasement trade, and strong outperformance in EM equities. Emerging markets remain an overweight call as cumulative equity flows reach multi-year highs and valuations sit at 10.2x forward P/E.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Tech rally is broadening beyond the +Semis vs -Software pairs trade into Hyperscalers and Software, supported by $950B FY26 CSP capex estimates (+94% YoY) and improving AI ROI.
- 2.The Dollar Debasement trade has re-emerged following US FX/Rates actions, but lacks full durability without a dovish Federal Reserve and amidst robust US economic growth.
- 3.Emerging Market equities have broken a 7-year losing streak against the US, leading the S&P 500 by nearly 800bp YTD, driven by attractive valuations (10.2x forward P/E), fund inflows (~$70bn), and rotation away from mega-cap tech.
Table of Contents
- SUMMARY OF THEMATIC VIEWS
- THEMATIC DEEP DIVE
- TECH BROADENING
- DOLLAR DEBASEMENT
- TRACK FLOWS IN THEMATICS
- POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE: THEMATIC DASHBOARDS
- Positioning Intelligence | EU Thematic Positioning Dashboard
- Positioning Intelligence | APAC Thematic Positioning Dashboard
- JP MORGAN GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Report data
REVISIONS TO AGGREGATE CLOUD CAPEX ESTIMATES ($B) — as of August 25, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| CSP Capex Consensus Estimate | 950 USD Billion | Aggregated capex estimates for major cloud and neocloud operators. |
| EM Equities Outperformance vs SPX | 800 basis points | EM equity leadership over US S&P 500 index. |
| EM 12-Month Forward P/E | 10.2 x | Trading 1 standard deviation below its historic average. |
| Annual Cumulative EM Equity Fund Flows | 70 USD Billion | Cumulative fund flows excluding onshore funds. |
| US 10Y Treasury Yield | 4.71% | Moved higher in response to stronger economic growth and inflation data. |
Reports in this series
Thematic Pulse is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 25, 2026.
Part of the Thematic Pulse series — view all 3 editions
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- CSP Capex Consensus Estimate: 950 USD Billion (FY26) · Source: J.P. Morgan Cloud Capex Dataset, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
- EM Equities Outperformance vs SPX: 800 basis points (YTD 2026) · Source: J.P. Morgan
- EM 12-Month Forward P/E: 10.2 x (August 2026) · Source: J.P. Morgan Research
- Annual Cumulative EM Equity Fund Flows: 70 USD Billion (2026 YTD) · Source: EPFR Global
- US 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.71 % (QTD August 2026) · Source: J.P. Morgan