Report published September 23, 2026
The Rise of Tech in Brazil's Investment: J.P. Morgan Macro Report
J.P. Morgan · September 23, 2026
J.P. Morgan introduces a monthly Investment Activity Index (IAI) for Brazil that integrates software and intellectual-property services alongside construction and capital goods. Software and tech services now represent roughly 15% of total investment, materially improving correlation with quarterly GDP investment figures.
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Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.J.P. Morgan is introducing a monthly Investment Activity Index (IAI) that incorporates software and IP services alongside construction and capital goods to track Brazil's gross fixed capital formation.
- 2.Software services have become a major driver of Brazilian investment, rising from under 5% in 2011 to ~9.5% in 2021, and reaching roughly 15% when including all tech services.
- 3.Incorporating software spending improves the index's correlation to quarterly GDP investment, raising the R-squared from 0.81 to 0.84 and lowering standard error by 15%.
Table of Contents
- The investment activity index (IAI)
- Increasing the ability to track
- Most recent data: signs of recovery in 3Q
Report data
Table 1: Investment Activity Index (IAI)
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Software and information services share of Brazil investment (2011) | <5% | Annual GDP national accounts breakdown of investment components |
| Software and information services share of Brazil investment (2021) | 9.5% | Share nearly doubled from under 5% in 2011 |
| Total technology-services related share of Brazilian investment | 15% | Estimated total share including all technology-services related components |
| Share of software spending directed to investment | 90% | Proportion of software spending capitalized as fixed investment per GDP breakdown |
| R-squared of IAI vs GDP Investment (with software) | 0.84 ratio | Rises from 0.81 without software, cutting standard error by 15% |
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