Trading CPI

Latest edition · September 9, 2026

JPM US Market Intelligence | Trading CPI: September 2026

J.P. Morgan US Market Intelligence previews the August CPI release, forecasting Headline MoM at +0.38% and Core MoM at +0.21%. Desk scenario analysis assigns a 65% probability of positive equity reactions on the day of the print.

J.P. Morgan's US Market Intelligence trading desk outlines five core CPI scenarios and their anticipated 1-day impact on the S&P 500. Chief US Economist Michael Feroli forecasts August Headline CPI at +0.38% MoM and Core CPI at +0.21% MoM (2.4% YoY). With bond markets pricing a ~63% probability of a 25bp hike at the upcoming September 16 FOMC meeting, a Core CPI print around 0.2% is expected to confirm a pause, driving equities higher (50bp to 125bp gain). Supported by neutral investor positioning and recent hedge fund re-grossing (+1.3z week-over-week), desk strategists view the risk/reward profile into the release as skewed to the upside.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.JPM Economics forecasts August Headline CPI at +0.38% MoM (3.4% YoY) and Core CPI at +0.21% MoM (2.4% YoY), which is seen as low enough for the Fed to hold rates.
• 2.Market intelligence desk scenario analysis assigns a 65% combined probability to outcomes where Core MoM prints at or below 0.25%, which would prompt an estimated 0.50% to 2.0% SPX rally.
• 3.The bond market is pricing a ~63% chance of a 25bp rate hike at the September 16 FOMC, meaning a soft-to-consensus CPI print could trigger an equity relief rally led by Momentum, Tech, and Cyclicals.

What this series covers

• J.P.Morgan | Data Assets & Alpha Group
• FEROLI ON CPI – full note is here
• JP MORGAN GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE
• Market Intelligence
• Data Intelligence
• Positioning Intelligence

Edition archive

• JPM US Market Intelligence | Trading CPI: September 2026

  September 9, 2026

• JPM US Market Intelligence | Trading CPI: August 2026

  August 10, 2026

• JPM TRADING CPI – JULY 2026

  July 13, 2026