Report published August 26, 2026
J.P. Morgan Macro Analysis: Global Labor Market Recoupling and Growth Outlook
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- J.P. Morgan
- Report date
- August 26, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Bruce Kasman
Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
J.P. Morgan reaffirms its conscious recoupling narrative, forecasting global job growth to rebound toward 0.9% alongside 2.2% GDP growth ex-China over the next four quarters. This thesis is supported by surging corporate profits, improving business sentiment, and rising employment PMIs, balancing cyclical lift with structural productivity enhancements.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Global employment growth slowed to 0.5% annualized last quarter, but above-trend GDP growth is expected to drive a cyclical rebound in hiring.
- 2.Surging corporate profits, easy credit conditions, and rebounding business sentiment provide the foundation for stronger labor demand.
- 3.Business survey indicators, notably the DM employment PMI reaching a three-year high, point to accelerating hiring intentions in 3Q26.
Table of Contents
- The case for a pickup remains in place
- Incoming indicators are encouraging
- Not one or the other
Report data
Figure 1: Non-tech capex and manufacturing
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Global employment growth (ex. China) | 0.5 % annualized rate | Global employment growth ex-China smoothed across quarterly volatility |
| Global factory output growth | 3.4 % annualized rate | 1H26 global factory output supported above-potential GDP gains |
| DM PMI Employment Index change | 1.3 points | DM employment PMI reached highest level since 2023, tracking job growth at ~1.5%ar |
| Global GDP growth projection (ex. China) | 2.2% | Projected pace over the coming four quarters alongside 0.9% employment gains |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Global employment growth (ex. China): 0.5 % annualized rate (2Q26) · Source: National sources, J.P. Morgan
- Global factory output growth: 3.4 % annualized rate (1H26) · Source: National sources, J.P. Morgan
- DM PMI Employment Index change: 1.3 points (August 2026) · Source: S&P Global, J.P. Morgan
- Global GDP growth projection (ex. China): 2.2 % (Next 4 quarters) · Source: J.P. Morgan