Report published October 1, 2026
J.P. Morgan: International Market Intelligence Morning Briefing (October 1, 2026)
J.P. Morgan · October 1, 2026
Tech outperformance has renewed market narrowing while resilient macro data keeps global bond yields elevated despite oil falling back below $100. J.P. Morgan remains tactically neutral/cautious on global equities, favoring long US and Asian tech over Europe, and highlights Brazil's election as a critical near-term volatility catalyst.
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Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Market breadth is narrowing as Tech leadership extends, with dispersion shifting within themes rather than across them, favoring AI infrastructure and capex spenders.
- 2.Global macro remains resilient with yields elevated despite lower energy prices, while European inflation upside surprises limit the benefit of lower energy for EU equities.
- 3.J.P. Morgan is tactically cautious/neutral on global equities, preferring US and Asia (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) over Europe, and recommending European index downside hedges.
Table of Contents
- 20 SECONDS
- On Politics
- BRAZIL ELECTIONS: POLYMARKET ODDS BOLSONARO WINS (BLUE) VS CALL – PUT OPEN INTEREST (WHITE)
- SXXP / SPX RELATIVE UNDERPERFORMANCE NEAR POST-WAR LOWS
- French Government Aiming for 5% Deficit in 2027
- US Market Breadth Shows Historically Narrow Reading
- CATALYSTS
- IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF
- IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN DETAIL
- POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE
Report data
Figure 3: Scenario analysis of reactions to election outcomes
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Probability of October Fed Rate Hike | <40% | Market pricing following softer US PCE data. |
| US Q2 GDP Revision | 2.2 % QoQ | Upward revision supporting strong macro thesis. |
| Euro Area Projected Inflation | 3.9 % oya | J.P. Morgan Economics projection following upside CPI surprises in Italy, France, and Germany. |
| Tax Revenue as % of GDP | 43.9 % of GDP | Tax burden in France compared to 25.2% in the US and 35.3% in the UK. |
| Brazil Equity Bullish Scenario Return | 50% | J.P. Morgan equity strategist projection under a bullish election outcome. |
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