Report published September 30, 2026

J.P. Morgan: International Market Intelligence Morning Briefing – September 30, 2026

J.P. Morgan · September 30, 2026

J.P. Morgan's morning briefing highlights that oil flows and elevated sovereign bond yields continue to dominate macro sentiment, while equities attempt to broaden. The team maintains a tactically cautious-to-neutral view on global equities, favoring the US and select Asian markets over Europe while emphasizing supercycle AI and energy themes alongside downside hedges.

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Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Oil and sovereign rates continue to dominate market direction, with US 30-year yields touching highs since 2022 and higher-debt sovereign spreads (such as France's OATs) widening.
2.Middle East oil export recovery is uneven: crude flows have rebounded to 98% of pre-war levels while product exports remain suppressed at 58%, though total exports are within 11% of baseline.
3.The desk maintains a tactically cautious/neutral stance on global equities, preferring the US and Asia over Europe, while actively hedging momentum factor drawdowns via options.

20 SECONDS
EU Natural Gas Futures (White) vs EUR 1Y1M (Blue)
MSCI ACWI. Breadth vs 12m fwd Earnings Growth
China's LNG Imports to Drop in Sept., Kpler Data Shows
UK vs EU Utilities
Catalysts
Ideas & Insights – In Brief
Ideas & Insights – In Detail
Int Mkt Intel Monetization
Emerging Markets Monetization
Positioning Intelligence

Report data

Figure 1: Total oil flows from the Middle East

Metric	Estimate	Context
Middle East oil exports relative to pre-war levels	-11.0%	Oil export recovery with flows topping 13.5 mbd.
Crude oil flow recovery rate	98.0%	Crude flows rebounding to 98% of pre-war levels.
Refined product export recovery rate	58.0%	Product exports lag crude at 58% of pre-war levels.
Planned US crude release from Strategic Petroleum Reserve	40.0 million barrels	US set to release crude from SPR to relieve supply pressure.
France planned bond sales	340.0 EUR billion	Record planned issuance weighing on OAT spreads.

Source: Kpler, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

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Authors / Editors

Andrew Tyler · Market IntelligenceFederico Manicardi · Market IntelligenceEllen Wang · Emerging Markets MonetizationVictoria Campos · Emerging Markets MonetizationJohn Schlegel · Head of Data Assets & Alpha Group