Report published September 25, 2026
J.P. Morgan Research: International Market Intelligence: Morning Briefing – September 25, 2026
J.P. Morgan · September 25, 2026
J.P. Morgan's daily briefing highlights that US 2Y Treasury yields appear fairly valued after catching up with Fed rhetoric, while prospective US-Iran talks over reopening the Strait of Hormuz offer a timely geopolitical off-ramp. Tactically, the desk is cautious-to-neutral on global equities, maintaining regional preference for the US and Asia over Europe while selectively backing secular AI, power, and industrial themes.
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Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The US and Iran are exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, providing timely relief after 10-year Treasury yields jumped 50bp in a month, though skepticism remains high.
- 2.US 2-year Treasury yields have caught up with Fed rhetoric, growth expectations, and inflation fundamentals, leaving them fairly valued for the first time since early summer.
- 3.Tactical stance on global equities is cautious/neutral, preferring the US and Asia over Europe, while favoring supercycle themes (AI enablers, Nuclear, Clean Energy, Modern Warfare).
Table of Contents
- 20 SECONDS
- Three great JPM reads
- Mahan Air flights from China to Iran
- Really Rising
- TOTAL CASH PILE BY INCOME PERCENTILE (YE19 = 100, INFLATION-ADJUSTED)
- JP Morgan policy rate forecast evolution, 2Q27
- Global CPI - ex Chn and Tur
- IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF
- IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN DETAIL
- EMERGING MARKETS MONETIZATION
- POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE
Report data
Table 1. Selected U.S. Capital-Expenditure Booms
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Treasury Yield 1-Month Increase | 50 bp | Yield increase that prompted risk-off conditions and 'until something breaks' concerns. |
| China Share of Global Pharma Clinical Trial Starts | 30% | Risen dramatically from ~1% in 2009 to ~30% in 2024. |
| China Biotech Out-Licensing Deal Value | 139 USD billion | Increased from c.$53bn in 2024 to c.$139bn in 2025, with 1H26 tracking above $100bn. |
| Projected AI Buildout CapEx as % of GDP | 3.63 % of GDP | Estimated average annual capital expenditure as a percentage of GDP compared against historical US CapEx booms. |
| US Consumer Cash Pile Total | 22.62 USD trillion | Total cash pile rose from $14.71T in 2019Q4 but broke an 8-quarter run of consecutive new highs. |
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International Market Intelligence is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 25, 2026.
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