Report published September 4, 2026

J.P. Morgan International Market Intelligence: Morning Briefing – September 4, 2026

J.P. Morgan · September 4, 2026

J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence maintains a tactically neutral stance on global equities as lower bond yields and dollar softening provide near-term support. The team favors US and Asian equities over European equities, while identifying asymmetric risks around JPY carry unwinds and an active multi-week factor rotation.

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Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Global equities are supported by falling yields following dovish Fed remarks and a JPY rally, though J.P. Morgan remains tactically cautious/neutral globally with regional preference for the US and Asia over Europe.
2.Research considers the JPY surge overdone, viewing USD/JPY as unlikely to break materially below the 155-165 range in the base case, despite large outstanding short positioning presenting an ongoing unwinding risk.
3.Global macro indicators are accelerating, with the composite output PMI reaching 53.5 (consistent with 3.1% annualized global GDP growth), running well above potential (2.3%) and 3Q forecasts (2.6%).

20 SECONDS: Rates Remain in Control, Supporting Global Equity Rally
SUMMARY OF VARIOUS SCENARIOS FOR USD/JPY
Global Investors Own Record Amount of US Assets
Dollar Hedge Costs Have Fallen
US refinery super runs
CATALYSTS
IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF
IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN DETAIL
EMERGING MARKETS MONETIZATION – Ellen Wang / Victoria Campos
POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE
J.P. Morgan Global Market Intelligence Contacts

Report data

SUMMARY OF VARIOUS SCENARIOS FOR USD/JPY

Metric	Estimate	Context
Global Composite Output PMI	53.5 index points	Highest level since May 2024, consistent with 3.1% annualized global GDP growth.
Market implied odds of September Fed rate hike	50%	Fell from 65% on Monday following dovish comments from Governor Waller.
Hedge Fund Average August Performance	0.6%	Rebounded following July volatility, though crowded shorts weighed on US HC and Tech.
Euro Area Final Composite PMI	52.0 index points	Largely unchanged from flash (-0.1) and steady from July, implying annualized GDP growth around 1.4%.