Report published August 26, 2026
J.P. Morgan Research: Global Thematic Views – Tech Broadening, Dollar Debasement, and EM Equities
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- J.P. Morgan
- Report date
- August 26, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 25, 2026
Authors / editors: Andrew Tyler (Head of Global Market Intelligence), Federico Manicardi (Head of International Market Intelligence), Ellen Wang (Market Intelligence Analyst), Victoria Campos (International Market Intelligence Analyst), John Schlegel (Head of Data Assets & Alpha Group)
Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
J.P. Morgan explores three core investment themes: broadening technology market participation across software and hyperscalers, the resurgence of dollar debasement dynamics, and the continued outperformance of Emerging Market equities. The team maintains an Overweight stance on EM equities while anticipating higher dispersion across tech subsectors.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Technology sector participation is broadening beyond the +Semis/-Software pair trade, supported by strong hyperscaler capex visibility, cloud profit inflection, and increasing software dispersion.
- 2.The Dollar Debasement narrative has resurfaced but lacks full duration and strength due to robust US growth, loose financial conditions, and resilient corporate earnings.
- 3.J.P. Morgan Research maintains an Overweight stance on EM Equities, citing attractive forward valuations (10.2x P/E), superior earnings revisions, and a weaker USD tailwind.
Table of Contents
- SUMMARY OF THEMATIC VIEWS
- THEMATIC DEEP DIVE
- TECH BROADENING
- DOLLAR DEBASEMENT
- TRACK FLOWS IN THEMATICS
- POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE: THEMATIC DASHBOARDS
- JP MORGAN GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Report data
Revisions to Aggregate Cloud Capex Estimates ($B) — as of August 25, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| EM Outperformance vs S&P 500 | 800.0 bps | EM outperforming SPX after breaking a 7-year losing streak in FY25. |
| CSP Capex Estimate | 950.0 USD Billion | Consensus estimates for Cloud Service Provider capex growth over the next 3 years. |
| Open-Source Token Usage Share | 62.0% | Rapid shift in token usage on OpenRouter from closed to open-source models. |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.71% | Yield increase driven by strong economic data and inflation. |
| EM 12-Month Forward P/E | 10.2 x | Valuation level at historical rebound support. |
Reports in this series
Global Thematic Views is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 26, 2026.
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- EM Outperformance vs S&P 500: 800.0 bps (YTD 2026) · Source: J.P. Morgan
- CSP Capex Estimate: 950.0 USD Billion (FY26) · Source: J.P. Morgan Cloud Capex Dataset, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
- Open-Source Token Usage Share: 62.0 % (Past 2 months) · Source: Versel / OpenRouter
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.71 % (QTD August 2026) · Source: J.P. Morgan
- EM 12-Month Forward P/E: 10.2 x (August 2026) · Source: J.P. Morgan Research
Securities
Themes
Regions
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