Report published September 24, 2026

J.P. Morgan Flows & Liquidity: Rising Corporate Financing Surpluses and Capex Dynamics

J.P. Morgan · September 24, 2026

Corporate financing surpluses have widened to near-historical highs (~2% of US GDP) as cash flows outstrip capex, supporting equity buybacks and limiting corporate borrowing. Simultaneously, bond futures momentum signals have pushed back toward extreme short levels, and bitcoin has temporarily rebounded above its $85k production cost amid miner shifts toward AI infrastructure.

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Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Corporate financing surpluses have risen steeply to ~2% of US GDP in Q2 2026, approaching historic highs outside crisis periods, as cash flows grow faster than capex.
2.AI capex concentration appears to be crowding out non-tech capital expenditure, keeping aggregate capex-to-GDP restrained compared to 1990s tech bubble levels.
3.Global share buybacks are on pace to reach $1.7tr in 2026 ($1.3tr from the US), financed by corporate cash surpluses, with non-tech sectors likely expanding their share as tech hyperscaler surpluses get consumed by AI capex.

Rising corporate financing surpluses
Momentum signals for bond futures have moved back to more elevated shorts for 10y USTs and Bunds after today's sell-off; they remain in more extreme short territory for OATs vs. Bunds and extreme long territory for energy product futures
In a positive development, the bitcoin price had moved above its production cost in recent days (before today's correction) after spending 280 days below
CTAs – Trend following investors' momentum indicators
Corporate Activity
Pension fund and insurance company flows
Credit Creation
Bitcoin monitor
Japanese flows and positions
Commodity flows and positions
Corporate FX hedging proxies
Non-Bank investors' implied allocations

Report data

Figure 3: US and G4 all corporate financing surplus (i.e. cash flows minus capex)

Metric	Estimate	Context
US Corporate Financing Surplus as % of GDP	2.0%	Surplus of all US corporates reached close to 2% of GDP, near historical highs outside crisis periods.
US Non-Financial Corporate Financing Surplus as % of GDP	1.5%	Highest level since 1958 outside crisis periods.
Global Share Buybacks	1.7 trillion USD	Global share buybacks on track to reach $1.7tr this year, $1.3tr from US companies.
Bitcoin Implied Production Cost	85000.0 USD	Average implied cost to produce one bitcoin; spot recently traded above this soft floor.
Bitcoin Network Hashrate Decline from Peak	-19.0%	Hashrate decline reflects structural shift by miners towards AI computing contracts.