Report published September 2, 2026
Flows & Liquidity: Quantity-Based vs. Price-Based Financial Conditions Metrics
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- J.P. Morgan
- Report date
- September 2, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Mika Inkinen, Mayur Yeole, Krutik P Mehta
Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Despite price-based financial conditions tightening due to higher global bond yields, quantity-based metrics such as credit and M2 money creation remain strongly supportive. Cross-asset investor positioning remains moderately long in equities and bonds without reaching extreme territory, while market liquidity has weakened primarily in cash US Treasuries.
Key Takeaways
- 1.While price-based metrics indicate financial conditions have tightened relative to earlier periods due to rising bond yields, quantity-based indicators such as broad credit and M2 money creation suggest conditions remain supportive of economic growth.
- 2.Market trading liquidity has deteriorated significantly for cash US Treasuries near previous March 2026 lows, while liquidity breadth remains historically subdued for Nikkei, gold, and bitcoin futures.
- 3.Investors remain modestly long equities (70th percentile) and government bonds (58th percentile), but positioning remains far from extreme levels; EM equities and commodities ex-gold represent the largest overweights, while credit and EM bonds/FX are underweight.
Table of Contents
- Flows & Liquidity
- Quantity-based vs. price-based financial conditions metrics
- Market (trading) liquidity has deteriorated mostly for cash USTs in recent weeks and appears to remain rather low for Nikkei, gold and bitcoin futures
- Investors appear to be still long equities and bonds but only modestly so
- Appendix
- ETF Flow Monitor (as of 2nd September)
- Short Interest Monitor
- Cross Asset Volatility Monitor
- Option skew monitor
- Equity market health map
- Spec position monitor
- Mutual fund and hedge fund betas
- CTAs – Trend following investors' momentum indicators
- Corporate Activity
- Pension fund and insurance company flows
- Credit Creation
- Bitcoin monitor
- Japanese flows and positions
- Commodity flows and positions
- Corporate FX hedging proxies
- Non-Bank investors' implied allocations
Report data
Figure 2: US financial conditions indicators, 12-month changes
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Global Aggregate bond yield | 4.1% | Catalyst for recent price-based financial condition tightening discussions. |
| US commercial bank loan growth | 7.0 % y/y | Indicator of robust credit creation despite higher rates. |
| Projected US M2 Money Supply Expansion | 2.0 $tr | Annualized pace based on $1tr YTD creation through August 19. |
| Equity Positioning Percentile | 70 percentile | Cross Asset Positioning Monitor percentile since 2015. |
Reports in this series
Flows & Liquidity is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 2, 2026.
Part of the Flows & Liquidity series — view all 3 editions
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Global Aggregate bond yield: 4.1 % (Late August / early September 2026) · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
- US commercial bank loan growth: 7.0 % y/y (July 2026) · Source: Federal Reserve (H.8 release)
- Projected US M2 Money Supply Expansion: 2.0 $tr (Full Year 2026) · Source: Crane Data, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Flows & Liquidity
- Equity Positioning Percentile: 70 percentile (As of 01-Sep-2026) · Source: J.P. Morgan Flows & Liquidity
Securities
Themes
Regions
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