Report published September 30, 2026

Flows & Liquidity: Equity Vulnerabilities – J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy

J.P. Morgan · September 30, 2026

J.P. Morgan's Flows & Liquidity report highlights that elevated equity leverage and positioning have re-emerged, creating headwind risks for equities into Q4. Meanwhile, strong bond inflows ($1.7tr annualized) fail to cap yields due to weak duration impulses, and corporate hedging adjustments drive USD strength despite crowded speculative positioning.

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Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Excesses in equity leverage and positioning have re-emerged near YTD peaks, posing tactical headwinds into Q4, though tech/AI fundamentals remain strong.
2.Global bond fund inflows are tracking a record annualized pace of $1.7tr, but yields continue to rise due to a weak duration impulse and overweight duration positioning.
3.Corporate hedging imbalances explain euro weakness and dollar strength despite speculative investors being heavily short EUR and long USD.

Equity vulnerabilities
Cross Asset Fund Flow Monitor
Cross Asset Positioning Monitor
Bond fund inflows likely supported by equity returns YTD, but the duration impulse remains weak
Corporate hedging shifts might be making the euro trading long vs the dollar even as spec investors are rather short
ETF Flow Monitor (as of 30th September)
Short Interest Monitor
Cross Asset Volatility Monitor
Option skew monitor
Equity market health map
Spec position monitor
Mutual fund and hedge fund betas
CTAs – Trend following investors' momentum indicators
Corporate Activity
Pension fund and insurance company flows
Credit Creation
Bitcoin monitor
Japanese flows and positions
Commodity flows and positions
Corporate FX hedging proxies
Non-Bank investors' implied allocations

Report data

Figure 10: US hyperscalers capex projections by the consensus of bottom-up analysts as reported by Bloomberg

Metric	Estimate	Context
Global bond fund inflows annualized pace	1.7 trillion USD	Annualized pace of global bond fund inflows tracking around $1.7tr.
Total US hyperscalers capex projection for 2026E	804.9 billion USD	Capex projections by bottom-up consensus analysts across Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle.
Total US hyperscalers capex projection for 2027E	1001.8 billion USD	Hyperscaler capex projections revised up from $925bn on July 1st to over $1tr.
Cross-asset broad equity positioning percentile	0.70 percentile	Positioning monitor indicates overall equities positioning stands at the 70th percentile.
US Dollar Index level	100 index points	Dollar rally pushed DXY above 100.