Report published September 29, 2026
Euro Area: Sentiment Modestly Lower in September – J.P. Morgan Economic Research
J.P. Morgan · September 29, 2026
The Euro area European Commission ESI fell 0.5pt to 97.9 in September 2026 due to softer consumer sentiment, while business sentiment continued to strengthen. The broader survey remains consistent with PMI signals pointing to a 1.7%ar expansion and upside risks to J.P. Morgan's 1.5%ar year-end growth forecast.
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Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) dropped 0.5 points to 97.9 in September, driven entirely by weaker consumer sentiment (-1pt) while business sentiment continued to improve.
- 2.Survey indicators remain consistent with PMI data pointing to a 1.7% annualized expansion and present upside risks to J.P. Morgan's 1.5% annualized year-end forecast.
- 3.Manufacturing sentiment has advanced nearly 10 points since late 2024 and services have recovered earlier declines, while retail and construction have at least stabilized.
Table of Contents
- Euro area: Sentiment modestly lower in September
- European Commission Euro area economic sentiment by sector
- Consumer confidence
- European Commission economic sentiment by country
- Euro area EC economic sentiment and PMI
- Euro area EC sentiment indicator
- Euro area GDP deflator and price surveys
- Euro area consumer confidence and household spending
- Euro area EC price expectations
- Consumer price expectations and perceptions
- Euro area consumers' unemployment expectations
Report data
European Commission Euro area economic sentiment by sector
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) | 97.9 index points | Euro area headline economic sentiment indicator in September |
| Manufacturing Sentiment Balance | -3.8 % balance | Euro area manufacturing sector sentiment component (40% weight) |
| Services Sentiment Balance | 6.1 % balance | Euro area services sector sentiment component (30% weight) |
| Consumer Sentiment Balance | -16.5 % balance | Euro area consumer sentiment component (20% weight) |
| Euro Area GDP Expansion Rate | 1.7 % ar | Expansion rate pointed to by the composite PMI |
Reports in this series
Europe Economic Research is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 29, 2026.
Part of the Europe Economic Research series — view all 9 editions
Looking for the latest edition? JPM UK Fiscal headwinds (Oct 8, 2026)
- Sep 9JPM Germany Government
- Sep 17JPM Euro inflation
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- Sep 22JPM Euro area Consumer
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