Report published August 17, 2026
J.P. Morgan Equity Strategy: Updating on Key Market Themes & European Capex Outlook
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- J.P. Morgan
- Report date
- August 17, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 14, 2026
Authors / editors: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Prabhav Bhadani, CFA, Nitya Saldanha, CFA, Karishma Manpuria, Anamil Kochar
Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
J.P. Morgan maintains an Overweight stance on equities, forecasting new index highs into year-end 2026 led by broadening Cyclicals. The report details a multi-year European capex cycle centered on resilience, defense, energy security, and German fiscal expansion.
Key Takeaways
- 1.J.P. Morgan maintains a positive stance on global equities, forecasting fresh all-time highs into year-end supported by broadening breadth and earnings delivery.
- 2.Europe is undergoing a structural shift from efficiency toward security, resilience, and strategic autonomy, driving a multi-year capex cycle across energy, defense, grids, and infrastructure.
- 3.Across all key thematic areas, the physical infrastructure layer offers the most investable expressions, with Capital Goods, Utilities, Building Materials, and Steel recurring as core beneficiaries.
Table of Contents
- Updating on key market themes
- The structural shift from efficiency to resilience
- 1) Energy security, grid upgrade, renewables and nuclear
- 2) German fiscal expansion and infrastructure upgrade
- 3) Strategic technologies
- 4) Defence modernization
- 5) Increased EU protectionism
- Longer dated opportunities include...6) Ageing population
- 7) Ukraine Reconstruction and Eastern European Build-out
- Appendix
- Equity Strategy Key Calls and Drivers
- Top Picks
- Equity Flows Snapshot
- Technical Indicators
- Performance
- Earnings
- Valuations
- Economic, Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Outlook
- Sector, Regional and Asset Class Allocations
Report data
Figure 6: Product investment - Real gross fixed capital formation excluding residential investment, % of GDP — as of August 14, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI AC World YTD total return | 14% | Global equity rally breadth and performance. |
| Eurozone EPS Growth Forecast 2026E | 18% | Earnings tailwind supporting European index target upgrades. |
| Germany Structural Primary Deficit Forecast 2026E | -2.2 % of GDP | Widening from -0.6% in 2025 to -2.2% in 2026 and -2.6% in 2027. |
| Special Infrastructure & Climate Fund Size | 500 EUR bn | Unlocked by Germany's constitutional debt-brake release. |
| Ukraine Total Reconstruction and Recovery Needs | 500-525 USD bn | RDNA5 assessment for Ukraine reconstruction. |
Reports in this series
Global Markets Strategy is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 17, 2026.
Part of the Global Markets Strategy series — view all 10 editions
Looking for the latest edition? JPM Equity Strategy Sept (Sep 1, 2026)
- Jun 29JPM Equity Strategy
- Jul 6JPM Equity Strategy
- Jul 8JPM Flows Liquidity A 2026-07-08
- Jul 20JPM Equity Strategy
- Aug 3JPM Equity Strategy August
- Aug 10JPM Delta One Flows
- Aug 10JPM Equity Strategy
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- MSCI AC World YTD total return: 14 % (YTD 2026) · Source: Datastream
- Eurozone EPS Growth Forecast 2026E: 18 % (2026E) · Source: J.P. Morgan
- Germany Structural Primary Deficit Forecast 2026E: -2.2 % of GDP (2026E) · Source: J.P. Morgan
- Special Infrastructure & Climate Fund Size: 500 EUR bn (Multi-year through 2030) · Source: Germany Finance Ministry
- Ukraine Total Reconstruction and Recovery Needs: 500-525 USD bn (10-year period) · Source: World Bank / EU / UN