J.P. Morgan
Report published August 28, 2026
J.P. Morgan Economic Activity Tracking: 3Q26 Global GDP and Cyclical Expansion Outlook
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- J.P. Morgan
- Report date
- August 28, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Joseph Lupton, Maia Crook, Alex Gallin
Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Weekly UpdateMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsOther
J.P. Morgan's 3Q26 global GDP growth forecast rose to 2.6% ar, reinforced by robust DM output indices and strong corporate profit growth. Meanwhile, the CapexNow model advanced to 9.2% ar, and the global nowcaster tracked at 2.2% ar.
Key Takeaways
- 1.J.P. Morgan's 3Q26 global GDP growth forecast ticked up to 2.6% ar led by US upward revisions, while the global nowcaster stands at 2.2% ar.
- 2.Strong global corporate profits (up 35% oya in 2Q26) and a 4-year high in the DM composite output index (54.0) reinforce expectations for a cyclical lift and capex recovery.
- 3.The CapexNow model's 3Q26 global capex estimate rose to 9.2% ar, driven by robust US activity.
Table of Contents
- JPM forecast evolution, GDP and CPI
- GDP nowcaster and recession probabilities
- Capex Nowcaster
- Global consumption tracking
- NLP of central bank speak
- JPM forecast evolution, policy rates
- J.P. Morgan forecasts vs. market
- Real policy rates
Report data
Figure 1: J.P. Morgan global GDP
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Global 3Q GDP Growth Forecast | 2.6 % ar | Forecast ticked up led by US upward revision |
| Global Core CPI Forecast | 2.7 % ar | Global core CPI forecast moved sideways |
| Developed Markets Composite Output Index | 54.0 index level | Highest level in four years |
| Global CapexNow 3Q Estimate | 9.2 % ar | Driven upwards by strong US data |
| US One-Year Recession Probability | 23% | Based on all economic indicators |
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Authors / Editors
Joseph LuptonMaia CrookAlex Gallin
Reported Data Context
- Global 3Q GDP Growth Forecast: 2.6 % ar (3Q26) · Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics
- Global Core CPI Forecast: 2.7 % ar (3Q26) · Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics
- Developed Markets Composite Output Index: 54.0 index level (Current / August 2026) · Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics, S&P Global
- Global CapexNow 3Q Estimate: 9.2 % ar (3Q26) · Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics
- US One-Year Recession Probability: 23 % (August 2026) · Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics
Themes
Global Growth and Cyclical LiftCapex and Corporate Profits AccelerationCentral Bank Policy Rate Trajectories
Regions
GlobalNorth AmericaEuropeUnited StatesChinaJapan