Report published September 9, 2026

Asia Semis: Key Takeaways from Semicon Taiwan & Leading-Edge Foundry Outlook

J.P. Morgan · September 9, 2026

Following meetings with 22 companies at Semicon Taiwan, J.P. Morgan expects the leading-edge N3 foundry capacity shortage to worsen into 2027 despite TSMC adding ~40% capacity. Advanced packaging investments are expanding to OSATs for CoWoS in 2027 and shifting to 3DSoIC in 2028, with GPTC, Chroma, ASMPT, and Hon Precision highlighted as top stock picks.

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Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Leading-edge foundry shortage is expected to worsen in 2027, as unfulfilled N3 demand exceeds 600k wafers due to NVDA Rubin/Vera ramp and hyperscaler CPU/ASIC migrations.
2.Advanced packaging capex is broadening out to OSATs (ASE, Amkor), targeting ~190-200k wfpm CoWoS capacity at TSMC by end-2027 and shifting focus toward 3DSoIC in 2028.
3.CoPoS development faces engineering headwinds pushing mass production to 2029, whereas EMIB-T is advancing steadily for TPUv9 and AWS Trn4.

Asia Semis
Key takeaways from Semicon Taiwan
Technology and Telecoms
Companies Discussed in This Report

Report data

Chroma ATE (2360.TW, 2360 TT) Price Chart / Historical Recommendations — as of September 8, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
Unfulfilled N3 foundry demand	600000.0 wafers	Estimated unfulfilled N3 demand in 2026, which is expected to widen further in 2027.
Nvidia share of TSMC N3 wafers	55.0%	Nvidia is projected to consume 55-60% of total N3 wafers in 2027, up from less than 10% in 1H26.
TSMC N3 capacity addition	40.0%	TSMC is adding ~40% N3 capacity mainly via Fab 18 P9 and Fab 21 P2 in Arizona.
TSMC CoWoS capacity	190000.0 wafers per month	Estimated TSMC CoWoS capacity by end-2027 reaching ~190-200k wfpm.
TSMC 3DSoIC capacity	65000.0 wafers per month	Projected 3DSoIC capacity at TSMC by end-2028 for GPU-GPU stacking.