GREED & FEAR

Latest edition · October 8, 2026

Jefferies Wood GREED and fear Brazil surprise and Hong Kongs pause to refresh 8 Oct 2026

Jefferies' Christopher Wood evaluates the market implications of Flávio Bolsonaro's lead in the Brazilian presidential election, advocating an overweight stance in Brazilian bonds and equities. He also highlights a temporary pause in Hong Kong's property recovery driven by Fed rate hikes, while favoring Hong Kong assets over mainland China.

In this edition of GREED & fear, Christopher Wood addresses key global investor concerns, including Middle East escalations, US equity market breadth deterioration, and the G7 bond sell-off. The primary emerging market highlight is Flávio Bolsonaro's surprisingly strong first-round victory in Brazil, leading markets to price in fiscal orthodoxy and falling real interest rates, where GREED & fear holds substantial overweight equity and bond allocations. In Asia, Wood reiterates a preference for domestic Hong Kong equities over China; although Hong Kong residential property faces a near-term pause due to renewed Fed tightening, structural tailwinds from mainland talent immigration, dropping negative equity loans, and robust bank liquidity provide strong support, contrasting with China's narrowly concentrated industrial profit growth.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Flávio Bolsonaro's stronger-than-expected first-round victory in Brazil's presidential election has fueled market optimism for fiscal orthodoxy and declining real interest rates, prompting Jefferies to maintain an aggressive overweight in Brazilian equities and sovereign bonds.
• 2.Hong Kong's residential real estate market is pausing due to renewed Federal Reserve rate hike concerns, but medium-term structural fundamentals remain supported by mainland immigration, surging rental yields, and an 88.5% YoY plunge in negative equity mortgages.
• 3.Chinese corporate profit recovery remains narrowly concentrated in electronics and AI-driven semiconductors, while government bond yields near record lows show the market is not yet buying a broader domestic reflation narrative.

What this series covers

• London

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